Cardinals vs Rams – Week 6 2026
ARI
LA
ARI
AWAY
@
SUN 4:05 PM
WEEK 6 · 2026 SEASON
SoFi Stadium · Inglewood, CA
LA
HOME
OUR PICK
THE SHORT ANSWER
Our model favors the Rams over the Cardinals at 81% win probability, a Tier S pick.
The market has the Rams at -12.5, in line with our own projection.
Out or doubtful: 3 Cardinals.
A midweek injury update moved the Rams from 80% to 81%.
Model confidence: LA 81%Our line: LA -11.7
80% range around our line: ARI by 6 to LA by 29. Four games in five land inside it.
Betting the LA game? Pro shows whether we flag it as a bet, at what price, and your stake at your unit size →
ODDS
SPREAD
LA -12.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
PREGAME SNAPSHOTWEEK 6 · WHAT MATTERS AT KICKOFF
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES
-0.142Net EPA / play+0.114
-0.018 (16)Offense EPA / play+0.073 (9)
+0.124 (29)Defense EPA / play-0.042 (10)
45.9% (12)Offense success %47.3% (7)
PROJECTED MARGINHOW THE FINAL SCORE COULD LAND
GAME NARRATIVE
S-tier pick on LA at 81% confidence.
EPA EDGE
LA generates 0.073 EPA/play on offense. ARI's defense allows 0.124. That's a top-tier efficiency gap.
S-TIER
S-tier. Only the most extreme edges earn this grade. Historically NoPunt's highest hit-rate tier.
3 OUT
ARI is missing 3 players including Andrew Wingard (S), Jeremiyah Love (RB), Wydett Williams Jr. (S). Depth losses compound across units.
HIGH CONVICTION
LA is one of the model's highest-conviction calls. Its strongest calls hit at a significantly higher rate.
AGGRESSIVE 4TH
LA goes for it on 4th down 26% of the time, among the most aggressive in the NFL.
Multiple signals align in LA's favor. One of the cleaner setups on the slate.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
CLOSING LINE VALUE
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARI@LAW18 2025 | ARI 20, LA 37 | LA | W |
| LA@ARIW14 2025 | LA 45, ARI 17 | LA | W |
| ARI@LAW17 2024 | ARI 9, LA 13 | LA | W |
| LA@ARIW2 2024 | LA 10, ARI 41 | LA | L |
| LA@ARIW12 2023 | LA 37, ARI 14 | LA | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSARI vs LA
Our model takes Los Angeles Rams at 81% win probability, a Tier S pick. The margin models project LA by 11.7. The market has LA at -12.5.
Our model favors Los Angeles Rams at 81% win probability, a Tier S pick.
The market has Los Angeles Rams at -12.5, meaning the book expects Los Angeles Rams to win by 12.5 points.
Heading into Week 6, the Arizona Cardinals are without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 51.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 49.9, 1.6 below the market, which our board calls an under.
Week 6 of the 2026 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Los Angeles Rams, ARI 20, LA 37 in Week 18 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, Los Angeles Rams: ARI -0.142 against LA +0.114.
