Steelers vs Buccaneers – Week 6 2026
PIT
TB
PIT
AWAY
OUR PICK
@
SUN 1:00 PM
WEEK 6 · 2026 SEASON
Raymond James Stadium · Tampa, FL
TB
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Our model favors the Steelers over the Buccaneers at 64% win probability, a Tier B pick.
The market has the Steelers at -2.5, and our model is 2.5 points higher on them than the book.
Out or doubtful: 3 Steelers, 4 Buccaneers.
A midweek injury update moved the Steelers from 63% to 64%.
Model confidence: PIT 64%Our line: PIT -5.0
80% range around our line: TB by 12 to PIT by 22. Four games in five land inside it.
Betting the PIT game? Pro shows whether we flag it as a bet, at what price, and your stake at your unit size →
ODDS
SPREAD
PIT -2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
PIT -5.0
OUR LINE
PREGAME SNAPSHOTWEEK 6 · WHAT MATTERS AT KICKOFF
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES
-0.046Net EPA / play-0.031
-0.046 (21)Offense EPA / play-0.088 (27)
+0.000 (18)Defense EPA / play-0.057 (7)
41.7% (21)Offense success %40.9% (23)
PROJECTED MARGINHOW THE FINAL SCORE COULD LAND
GAME NARRATIVE
PIT backed by qb out at 64%.
QB OUT
Baker Mayfield is OUT for TB. Backup QBs average roughly -0.15 EPA/play vs starters.
HIGH CONVICTION
PIT is one of the model's highest-conviction calls. Its strongest calls hit at a significantly higher rate.
OVER EDGE
Model projects 43.7 total points vs the 39.5 line. That's a 4.2-point over edge.
Net-positive signal profile for PIT. Grade: B.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
CLOSING LINE VALUE
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSPIT vs TB
Our model takes Pittsburgh Steelers at 64% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project PIT by 5.0. The market has PIT at -2.5.
Our model favors Pittsburgh Steelers at 64% win probability, a Tier B pick.
The market has Pittsburgh Steelers at -2.5, meaning the book expects Pittsburgh Steelers to win by 2.5 points.
Heading into Week 6, the Pittsburgh Steelers are without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 39.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 43.7, 4.2 above the market, which our board calls an over.
Week 6 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Pittsburgh Steelers, TB 18, PIT 20 in Week 6 of 2022.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: PIT -0.046 against TB -0.031.
