PIT @ TB – Week 6 2026
PIT
TB
PIT
AWAY
OUR PICK
@
SUN 1:00 PM
WEEK 6 · 2026 SEASON
TB
HOME
Model confidence: PIT 62%Projected margin: -0.9
PIT
PICK SIDE
+1.5
SPREAD
-0.9
PROJ MARGIN
+124
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.007Net EPA / play-0.022
+0.025Offense EPA / play-0.009
+0.018Defense EPA / play+0.013
44.0%Offense success %42.4%
43.3%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
WHY THIS PICK
PIT is our C-tier play in PIT @ TB (Week 6, 2026). The model assigns 61.7% confidence and projects PIT by 0.9. Market spread sits at PIT +1.5.
MODEL CONVICTION
Split. The model leans this way with less conviction.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +1.5 | PIT market line | |
| MODEL ML | +124 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML |
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
PIT
A.Rodgers
QB
227.1SEASON PPR
K.Gainwell
RB
221.3SEASON PPR
J.Warren
RB
217.1SEASON PPR
TB
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Pittsburgh SteelersPASSING
A.Rodgers3322 yd · 24 TD · 7 INT
RUSHING
J.Warren958 yd · 6 TD
K.Gainwell537 yd · 5 TD
K.Johnson69 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
D.Metcalf59 rec · 850 yd · 6 TD
K.Gainwell73 rec · 486 yd · 3 TD
P.Freiermuth41 rec · 486 yd · 4 TD
C.Austin31 rec · 372 yd · 3 TD
VS
3,322PASSyds3,693
1,564RUSH
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TB@PITW6 2022 | TB 18, PIT 20 | TB | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSPIT vs TB
Who is favored in Pittsburgh Steelers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers?
Our model takes Pittsburgh Steelers at 62% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project PIT by 0.9. The market has PIT at +1.5.
When do the Pittsburgh Steelers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers play?
Week 6 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Who won the last Pittsburgh Steelers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers game?
Pittsburgh Steelers, 18-20 in Week 6 of 2022.
Which team has been better, the Pittsburgh Steelers or the Tampa Bay Buccaneers?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Pittsburgh Steelers: PIT +0.007 against TB -0.022.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
