BUF @ LV – Week 6 2026
BUF
LV
BUF
AWAY
OUR PICK
@
SUN 4:25 PM
WEEK 6 · 2026 SEASON
LV
HOME
Model confidence: BUF 80%Projected margin: -9.3
BUF
PICK SIDE
-6.5
SPREAD
-9.3
PROJ MARGIN
-255
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.152Net EPA / play-0.240
+0.136Offense EPA / play-0.215
-0.016Defense EPA / play+0.024
48.5%Offense success %37.6%
42.4%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
GAME NARRATIVE
A+-tier pick on BUF at 80% confidence.
EPA EDGE
BUF generates 0.136 EPA/play on offense. LV's defense allows 0.024. That's a top-tier efficiency gap.
HIGH CONVICTION
BUF is one of the model's highest-conviction calls. Its strongest calls hit at a significantly higher rate.
AGGRESSIVE 4TH
BUF goes for it on 4th down 32% of the time -- among the most aggressive in the NFL.
RED ZONE
BUF converts 78% in the red zone vs 61% for LV. That efficiency gap matters in close games.
DRIVE EFF
BUF scores 2.5 points per drive vs 1.0 for LV. That's a substantial offensive rhythm gap.
Multiple signals align in BUF's favor. One of the cleaner setups on the slate.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -6.5 | BUF market line | |
| MODEL ML | -255 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML |
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
BUF
J.Allen
QB
364.6SEASON PPR
J.Cook
RB
302.2SEASON PPR
K.Shakir
WR
166.4SEASON PPR
LV
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Buffalo BillsPASSING
J.Allen3668 yd · 25 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
J.Cook1621 yd · 12 TD
J.Allen579 yd · 14 TD
R.Davis275 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
K.Shakir72 rec · 719 yd · 4 TD
D.Kincaid39 rec · 571 yd · 5 TD
D.Knox36 rec · 417 yd · 4 TD
K.Coleman38 rec · 404 yd · 4 TD
VS
3,668PASSyds3,025
2,475RUSHyds
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LV@BUFW2 2023 | LV 10, BUF 38 | BUF | W |
| BUF@LVW4 2020 | BUF 30, LV 23 | BUF | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSBUF vs LV
Who is favored in Buffalo Bills at Las Vegas Raiders?
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 80% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project BUF by 9.3. The market has BUF at -6.5.
When do the Buffalo Bills and Las Vegas Raiders play?
Week 6 of the 2026 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Who won the last Buffalo Bills vs Las Vegas Raiders game?
Buffalo Bills, 10-38 in Week 2 of 2023.
Which team has been better, the Buffalo Bills or the Las Vegas Raiders?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Buffalo Bills: BUF +0.152 against LV -0.240.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
