Bills vs Raiders – Week 6 2026
BUF
LV
BUF
AWAY
OUR PICK
@
SUN 4:25 PM
WEEK 6 · 2026 SEASON
Allegiant Stadium · Las Vegas, NV
LV
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Our model favors the Bills over the Raiders at 75% win probability, a Tier A pick.
The market has the Bills at -5.5, and our model is 3.4 points higher on them than the book.
Out or doubtful: 3 Raiders.
Model confidence: BUF 75%Our line: BUF -8.9
80% range around our line: LV by 8 to BUF by 26. Four games in five land inside it.
Betting the BUF game? Pro shows whether we flag it as a bet, at what price, and your stake at your unit size →
ODDS
SPREAD
BUF -5.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
PREGAME SNAPSHOTWEEK 6 · WHAT MATTERS AT KICKOFF
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES
+0.077Net EPA / play-0.001
+0.210 (1)Offense EPA / play+0.004 (14)
+0.134 (30)Defense EPA / play+0.005 (19)
49.1% (3)Offense success %42.6% (17)
PROJECTED MARGINHOW THE FINAL SCORE COULD LAND
GAME NARRATIVE
Model favors BUF (A-tier, 75% confidence).
3 OUT
LV is missing 3 players including Tonka Hemingway (DT), Carter Runyon (TE), Dont'e Thornton Jr. (WR). Depth losses compound across units.
HIGH CONVICTION
BUF is one of the model's highest-conviction calls. Its strongest calls hit at a significantly higher rate.
UNDER EDGE
Model projects 49.5 total points vs the 53.5 line. That's a 4.0-point under edge.
DRIVE EFF
BUF scores 2.7 points per drive vs 1.8 for LV. That's a substantial offensive rhythm gap.
BLOWOUT PROJ
Model projects a 8.9-point margin.
Multiple signals align in BUF's favor. One of the cleaner setups on the slate.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
CLOSING LINE VALUE
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LV@BUFW2 2023 | LV 10, BUF 38 | BUF | W |
| BUF@LVW4 2020 | BUF 30, LV 23 | BUF | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSBUF vs LV
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 75% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project BUF by 8.9. The market has BUF at -5.5.
Our model favors Buffalo Bills at 75% win probability, a Tier A pick.
The market has Buffalo Bills at -5.5, meaning the book expects Buffalo Bills to win by 5.5 points.
Heading into Week 6, the Las Vegas Raiders are without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 53.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 49.5, 4.0 below the market, which our board calls an under.
Week 6 of the 2026 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Buffalo Bills, LV 10, BUF 38 in Week 2 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, Buffalo Bills: BUF +0.077 against LV -0.001.
