HOU @ JAX – Week 6 2026
HOU
JAX
HOU
AWAY
OUR PICK
@
SUN 9:30 AM
WEEK 6 · 2026 SEASON
JAX
HOME
Model confidence: HOU 50%Projected margin: +1.2
HOU
PICK SIDE
+1.5
SPREAD
+1.2
PROJ MARGIN
+124
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.118Net EPA / play+0.136
-0.013Offense EPA / play+0.030
-0.131Defense EPA / play-0.105
41.3%Offense success %44.4%
38.3%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
WHY THIS PICK
HOU is our C-tier play in HOU @ JAX (Week 6, 2026). The model assigns 50.0% confidence and projects JAX by 1.2. Market spread sits at HOU +1.5.
MODEL CONVICTION
Split. The model leans this way with less conviction.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +1.5 | HOU market line | |
| MODEL ML | +124 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML |
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
HOU
N.Collins
WR
226.2SEASON PPR
C.Stroud
QB
208.5SEASON PPR
D.Schultz
TE
177.7SEASON PPR
JAX
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Houston TexansPASSING
C.Stroud3041 yd · 19 TD · 8 INT
RUSHING
W.Marks703 yd · 2 TD
N.Chubb506 yd · 3 TD
C.Stroud209 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
N.Collins71 rec · 1117 yd · 6 TD
D.Schultz82 rec · 777 yd · 3 TD
J.Higgins41 rec · 525 yd · 6 TD
X.Hutchinson35 rec · 428 yd · 3 TD
VS
3,041PASSyds4,007
1,418RUSHyds
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| JAX@HOUW15 2026 | — | HOU | — |
| JAX@HOUW10 2025 | JAX 29, HOU 36 | JAX | L |
| HOU@JAXW3 2025 | HOU 10, JAX 17 | JAX | W |
| HOU@JAXW13 2024 | HOU 23, JAX 20 | HOU | W |
| JAX@HOUW4 2024 | JAX 20, HOU 24 | HOU | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSHOU vs JAX
Who is favored in Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars?
Our model takes Houston Texans at 50% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project JAX by 1.2. The market has HOU at +1.5.
When do the Houston Texans and Jacksonville Jaguars play?
Week 6 of the 2026 season, SUN 9:30 AM.
Who won the last Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars game?
Houston Texans, 29-36 in Week 10 of 2025.
Which team has been better, the Houston Texans or the Jacksonville Jaguars?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Jacksonville Jaguars: HOU +0.118 against JAX +0.136.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
