Texans vs Jaguars – Week 6 2026
HOU
JAX
HOU
AWAY
@
SUN 9:30 AM
WEEK 6 · 2026 SEASON
EverBank Stadium · Jacksonville, FL
JAX
HOME
OUR PICK
THE SHORT ANSWER
Our model favors the Jaguars over the Texans at 73% win probability, a Tier A pick.
The market has the Jaguars at -2.5, and our model is 5.6 points higher on them than the book.
Out or doubtful: 3 Texans, 2 Jaguars.
Model confidence: JAX 73%Our line: JAX -8.1
80% range around our line: HOU by 9 to JAX by 25. Four games in five land inside it.
Betting the JAX game? Pro shows whether we flag it as a bet, at what price, and your stake at your unit size →
ODDS
SPREAD
JAX -2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
JAX -8.1
OUR LINE
PREGAME SNAPSHOTWEEK 6 · WHAT MATTERS AT KICKOFF
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES
+0.048Net EPA / play+0.239
+0.005 (13)Offense EPA / play+0.151 (6)
-0.043 (9)Defense EPA / play-0.088 (3)
42.4% (18)Offense success %46.9% (9)
PROJECTED MARGINHOW THE FINAL SCORE COULD LAND
GAME NARRATIVE
JAX backed by epa edge at 73%.
EPA EDGE
JAX generates 0.151 EPA/play on offense. HOU's defense allows -0.043. That's a top-tier efficiency gap.
3 OUT
HOU is missing 3 players including David Montgomery (RB), Jalen Pitre (S), Tank Dell (WR). Depth losses compound across units.
HIGH CONVICTION
JAX is one of the model's highest-conviction calls. Its strongest calls hit at a significantly higher rate.
OVER EDGE
Model projects 45.9 total points vs the 42.5 line. That's a 3.4-point over edge.
DRIVE EFF
JAX scores 2.1 points per drive vs 1.5 for HOU. That's a substantial offensive rhythm gap.
Multiple signals align in JAX's favor. One of the cleaner setups on the slate.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
CLOSING LINE VALUE
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| JAX@HOUW10 2025 | JAX 29, HOU 36 | JAX | L |
| HOU@JAXW3 2025 | HOU 10, JAX 17 | JAX | W |
| HOU@JAXW13 2024 | HOU 23, JAX 20 | HOU | W |
| JAX@HOUW4 2024 | JAX 20, HOU 24 | HOU | W |
| JAX@HOUW12 2023 | JAX 24, HOU 21 | JAX | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSHOU vs JAX
Our model takes Jacksonville Jaguars at 73% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project JAX by 8.1. The market has JAX at -2.5.
Our model favors Jacksonville Jaguars at 73% win probability, a Tier A pick.
The market has Jacksonville Jaguars at -2.5, meaning the book expects Jacksonville Jaguars to win by 2.5 points.
Heading into Week 6, the Houston Texans are without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Jacksonville Jaguars are without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 42.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.9, 3.4 above the market, which our board calls an over.
Week 6 of the 2026 season, SUN 9:30 AM.
Houston Texans, JAX 29, HOU 36 in Week 10 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, Jacksonville Jaguars: HOU +0.048 against JAX +0.239.
