Jaguars vs Texans – Week 12 2023
JAX
HOU
JAX
AWAY
24@21
JAX BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 12
2023 SEASON
NRG Stadium · Houston, TX
HOU
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Jacksonville Jaguars 24, Houston Texans 21.
Going in, our model had favored Jacksonville Jaguars at 59% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Jaguars, 3 Texans.
Model confidence: JAX 59%Our line: JAX -2.9
ODDS
SPREAD
JAX -1.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
JAX -2.9
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
JAX · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
59%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 12
-0.034Net EPA / play+0.014
-0.070 (21)Offense EPA / play-0.028 (15)
-0.036 (16)Defense EPA / play-0.043 (13)
42.1% (15)Offense success %40.9% (23)
GAME NARRATIVE
JAX B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected JAX by 2.9. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 0.1 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 2.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
JAX
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
HOU
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU@JAXW6 2026 | HOU 34, JAX 31 | JAX | L |
| JAX@HOUW10 2025 | JAX 29, HOU 36 | JAX | L |
| HOU@JAXW3 2025 | HOU 10, JAX 17 | JAX | W |
| HOU@JAXW13 2024 | HOU 23, JAX 20 | HOU | W |
| JAX@HOUW4 2024 | JAX 20, HOU 24 | HOU | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSJAX vs HOU
Our model takes Jacksonville Jaguars at 59% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project JAX by 2.9. The market has JAX at -1.0.
Jacksonville Jaguars won, JAX 24, HOU 21. Our model had favored Jacksonville Jaguars at 59% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Jacksonville Jaguars at -1.0, meaning the book expects Jacksonville Jaguars to win by 1.0 points.
In Week 12, the Jacksonville Jaguars were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Houston Texans were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 48.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.3, 1.7 below the market.
Week 12 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Houston Texans, HOU 34, JAX 31 in Week 6 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Houston Texans: JAX -0.034 against HOU +0.014.
