2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
JAX @ HOU – Week 12 2023
JAX
HOU
JAX
AWAY
24@21
JAX +3
FINAL · WEEK 12
2023 SEASON
HOU
HOME
TIER B
PICK: JAX
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: JAX 59%Projected margin: -0.9
JAX
PICK SIDE
-1.0
SPREAD
-0.9
PROJ MARGIN
-115
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
JAX B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected JAX by 0.9. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 2.1 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 2.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -1.0 | JAX market line | |
| MODEL ML | -115 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -115 | Won · +$0.87 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
JAX
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
HOU
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
JAX
Travis Etienne
RB
282.4SEASON PPR
Trevor Lawrence
QB
262.5SEASON PPR
Evan Engram
TE
230.3SEASON PPR
HOU
C.J. Stroud
QB
276.0SEASON PPR
Nico Collins
WR
260.4SEASON PPR
Devin Singletary
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| JAX@HOUW10 2025 | JAX 29, HOU 36 | JAX | L |
| HOU@JAXW3 2025 | HOU 10, JAX 17 | JAX | W |
| HOU@JAXW13 2024 | HOU 23, JAX 20 | HOU | W |
| JAX@HOUW4 2024 | JAX 20, HOU 24 | HOU | W |
| HOU@JAXW3 2023 | HOU 37, JAX 17 | JAX | L |
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES