JAX @ HOU – Week 12 2023
JAX
HOU
JAX
AWAY
24@21
JAX BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 12
2023 SEASON
NRG Stadium · Houston, TX
HOU
HOME
Model confidence: JAX 59%Our line: JAX -2.9
JAX
PICK SIDE
-1.0
MARKET SPREAD
-2.9
OUR LINE
-141
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 12
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2023 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.034Net EPA / play+0.014
-0.070Offense EPA / play-0.028
-0.036Defense EPA / play-0.043
42.1%Offense success %40.9%
42.7%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
JAX B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected JAX by 2.9. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 0.1 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 2.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | JAX | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -115 | -105 |
| Our fair price | -141 | +141 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD JAX -1.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.87
OUR NUMBER
59%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
51%
DIFFERENCE
+7%
Both figures are for JAX. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
JAX
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
HOU
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
JAX
Travis Etienne
RB
282.4 SEASON PPR
Trevor Lawrence
QB
262.5 SEASON PPR
Evan Engram
TE
230.3 SEASON PPR
HOU
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Jacksonville JaguarsPASSING
Trevor Lawrence4016 yd · 21 TD · 14 INT
RUSHING
Travis Etienne1008 yd · 11 TD
Trevor Lawrence339 yd · 4 TD
Tank Bigsby132 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
Calvin Ridley76 rec · 1016 yd · 8 TD
Evan Engram114 rec · 963 yd · 4 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| JAX@HOUW10 2025 | JAX 29, HOU 36 | JAX | L |
| HOU@JAXW3 2025 | HOU 10, JAX 17 | JAX | W |
| HOU@JAXW13 2024 | HOU 23, JAX 20 | HOU | W |
| JAX@HOUW4 2024 | JAX 20, HOU 24 | HOU | W |
| HOU@JAXW3 2023 | HOU 37, JAX 17 | JAX | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSJAX vs HOU
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Jacksonville Jaguars at 59% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project JAX by 2.9. The market has JAX at -1.0.
The model projects 46.3 combined points. The market total is 48.0.
Week 12 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Houston Texans, JAX 29, HOU 36 in Week 10 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Houston Texans: JAX -0.034 against HOU +0.014.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
