NE @ NYG – Week 12 2023
NE
NYG
NE
AWAY
7@10
NYG BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 12
2023 SEASON
MetLife Stadium · East Rutherford, NJ
NYG
HOME
Model confidence: NE 63%Our line: NE -4.4
NE
PICK SIDE
-4.5
MARKET SPREAD
-4.4
OUR LINE
-168
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 12
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2023 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.136Net EPA / play-0.155
-0.191Offense EPA / play-0.174
-0.055Defense EPA / play-0.019
38.9%Offense success %37.9%
41.0%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
NE B-tier pick misses. NYG takes it.
MISSED
Model picked NE but NYG won. Projected margin was 4.4, the model overestimated by 7.4 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 14 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 7.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | NE | NYG |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -218 | +180 |
| Our fair price | -168 | +168 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD NE -4.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
63%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
66%
DIFFERENCE
-3%
Both figures are for NE. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NE
Home Underdog 1-4 ATS (20%)
NYG
Home Underdog 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
43°F
WIND
6 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
NE
Ezekiel Elliott
RB
174.5 SEASON PPR
Rhamondre Stevenson
RB
145.7 SEASON PPR
Hunter Henry
TE
119.9 SEASON PPR
NYG
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New England PatriotsPASSING
Mac Jones2120 yd · 10 TD · 12 INT
RUSHING
Ezekiel Elliott642 yd · 3 TD
Rhamondre Stevenson619 yd · 4 TD
Mac Jones96 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
DeMario Douglas49 rec · 561 yd · 0 TD
Hunter Henry42 rec · 419 yd · 6 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYG@NEW13 2025 | NYG 15, NE 33 | NE | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSNE vs NYG
QUESTIONS
Our model takes New England Patriots at 63% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project NE by 4.4. The market has NE at -4.5.
The model projects 44.6 combined points. The market total is 36.5.
Week 12 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
New England Patriots, NYG 15, NE 33 in Week 13 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, New England Patriots: NE -0.136 against NYG -0.155.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
