2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
NE @ NYG – Week 12 2023
NE
NYG
NE
AWAY
7@10
NYG +3
FINAL · WEEK 12
2023 SEASON
NYG
HOME
TIER B
PICK: NE
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: NE 63%Projected margin: -1.9
NE
PICK SIDE
-4.5
SPREAD
-1.9
PROJ MARGIN
-191
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
NE B-tier pick misses. NYG takes it.
MISSED
Model picked NE but NYG won. Projected margin was 1.9 -- the model overestimated by 4.9 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 14 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 7.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -4.5 | NE market line | |
| MODEL ML | -191 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -218 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
NE
Home Underdog 1-4 ATS (20%)
NYG
Home Underdog 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
43°F
WIND
6 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
NE
Ezekiel Elliott
RB
174.5SEASON PPR
Rhamondre Stevenson
RB
145.7SEASON PPR
Hunter Henry
TE
119.9SEASON PPR
NYG
Saquon Barkley
RB
223.2SEASON PPR
Darius Slayton
WR
151.0SEASON PPR
Wan'Dale Robinson
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYG@NEW13 2025 | NYG 15, NE 33 | NE | W |
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES