Patriots vs Giants – Week 12 2023
NE
NYG
NE
AWAY
7@10
NYG BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 12
2023 SEASON
MetLife Stadium · East Rutherford, NJ
NYG
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New England Patriots 7, New York Giants 10.
Going in, our model had favored New England Patriots at 63% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 3 Giants.
Model confidence: NE 63%Our line: NE -4.4
ODDS
SPREAD
NE -4.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
NE -4.4
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
NE · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
63%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 12
-0.136Net EPA / play-0.155
-0.191 (31)Offense EPA / play-0.174 (29)
-0.055 (12)Defense EPA / play-0.019 (19)
38.9% (28)Offense success %37.9% (30)
GAME NARRATIVE
NE B-tier pick misses. NYG takes it.
MISSED
Model picked NE but NYG won. Projected margin was 4.4, the model overestimated by 7.4 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 14 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 7.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NE
Home Underdog 1-4 ATS (20%)
NYG
Home Underdog 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
43°F
WIND
6 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
NE
Ezekiel Elliott
RB
174.5 SEASON PPR
145.7 SEASON PPR
119.9 SEASON PPR
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYG@NEW13 2025 | NYG 15, NE 33 | NE | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNE vs NYG
Our model takes New England Patriots at 63% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project NE by 4.4. The market has NE at -4.5.
New York Giants won, NE 7, NYG 10. Our model had favored New England Patriots at 63% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has New England Patriots at -4.5, meaning the book expects New England Patriots to win by 4.5 points.
In Week 12, the New York Giants were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 36.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.6, 8.1 above the market.
Week 12 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
New England Patriots, NYG 15, NE 33 in Week 13 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, New England Patriots: NE -0.136 against NYG -0.155.
