Bears vs Vikings – Week 12 2023
CHI
MIN
CHI
AWAY
12@10
CHI BY 2
FINAL · WEEK 12
2023 SEASON
U.S. Bank Stadium · Minneapolis, MN
MIN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Chicago Bears 12, Minnesota Vikings 10.
Going in, our model had favored Minnesota Vikings at 75% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 3 Bears.
Model confidence: MIN 75%Our line: MIN -9.3
ODDS
SPREAD
MIN -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
MIN -9.3
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
MIN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 12
-0.007Net EPA / play-0.023
-0.049 (19)Offense EPA / play-0.041 (17)
-0.042 (14)Defense EPA / play-0.018 (20)
41.8% (18)Offense success %42.4% (13)
GAME NARRATIVE
MIN A+-tier pick misses. CHI takes it.
MISSED
Model picked MIN but CHI won. Projected margin was 9.3, the model overestimated by 11.3 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 11 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 5.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CHI
No noteworthy trends
MIN
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
MIN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIN@CHIW2 2026 | MIN 9, CHI 3 | CHI | L |
| CHI@MINW11 2025 | CHI 19, MIN 17 | CHI | W |
| MIN@CHIW1 2025 | MIN 27, CHI 24 | MIN | W |
| CHI@MINW15 2024 | CHI 12, MIN 30 | MIN | W |
| MIN@CHIW12 2024 | MIN 30, CHI 27 | MIN | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCHI vs MIN
Our model takes Minnesota Vikings at 75% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project MIN by 9.3. The market has MIN at -3.0.
Chicago Bears won, CHI 12, MIN 10. Our model had favored Minnesota Vikings at 75% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Minnesota Vikings at -3.0, meaning the book expects Minnesota Vikings to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 12, the Chicago Bears were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 43.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.7, 1.2 above the market.
Week 12 of the 2023 season, MON 8:15 PM.
Minnesota Vikings, MIN 9, CHI 3 in Week 2 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Chicago Bears: CHI -0.007 against MIN -0.023.
