2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
CHI @ MIN – Week 12 2023
CHI
MIN
CHI
AWAY
12@10
CHI +2
FINAL · WEEK 12
2023 SEASON
MIN
HOME
TIER A+
PICK: MIN
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: MIN 75%Projected margin: 7.4
MIN
PICK SIDE
-3.0
SPREAD
7.4
PROJ MARGIN
-154
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
MIN A+-tier pick misses. CHI takes it.
MISSED
Model picked MIN but CHI won. Projected margin was 7.4 -- the model overestimated by 9.4 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 11 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 5.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.0 | MIN market line | |
| MODEL ML | -154 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -166 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
CHI
No noteworthy trends
MIN
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
CHI
DJ Moore
WR
286.5SEASON PPR
Justin Fields
QB
230.2SEASON PPR
Cole Kmet
TE
181.1SEASON PPR
MIN
Jordan Addison
WR
221.3SEASON PPR
T.J. Hockenson
TE
219.0SEASON PPR
Justin Jefferson
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHI@MINW11 2025 | CHI 19, MIN 17 | CHI | W |
| MIN@CHIW1 2025 | MIN 27, CHI 24 | MIN | W |
| CHI@MINW15 2024 | CHI 12, MIN 30 | MIN | W |
| MIN@CHIW12 2024 | MIN 30, CHI 27 | MIN | W |
| MIN@CHIW6 2023 | MIN 19, CHI 13 | MIN | W |
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES