2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
LA @ ARI – Week 12 2023
LA
ARI
LA
AWAY
37@14
LA +23
FINAL · WEEK 12
2023 SEASON
ARI
HOME
TIER B
PICK: LA
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: LA 62%Projected margin: -2.0
LA
PICK SIDE
-3.0
SPREAD
-2.0
PROJ MARGIN
-154
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
LA B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked LA. Projected margin: 2.0. Actual: 23. Off by 21.0 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 20.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.0 | LA market line | |
| MODEL ML | -154 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -148 | Won · +$0.65 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
LA
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
ARI
Home Underdog 5-3 ATS (63%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
LA
Puka Nacua
WR
298.5SEASON PPR
Kyren Williams
RB
255.0SEASON PPR
Matthew Stafford
QB
243.1SEASON PPR
ARI
James Conner
RB
201.5SEASON PPR
Trey McBride
TE
181.5SEASON PPR
Kyler Murray
QB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARI@LAW18 2025 | ARI 20, LA 37 | LA | W |
| LA@ARIW14 2025 | LA 45, ARI 17 | LA | W |
| ARI@LAW17 2024 | ARI 9, LA 13 | LA | W |
| LA@ARIW2 2024 | LA 10, ARI 41 | LA | L |
| ARI@LAW6 2023 | ARI 9, LA 26 | LA | W |
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES