Rams vs Cardinals – Week 12 2023
LA
ARI
LA
AWAY
37@14
LA BY 23
FINAL · WEEK 12
2023 SEASON
State Farm Stadium · Glendale, AZ
ARI
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Los Angeles Rams 37, Arizona Cardinals 14.
Going in, our model had favored Los Angeles Rams at 62% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Rams, 3 Cardinals.
Model confidence: LA 62%Our line: LA -4.0
ODDS
SPREAD
LA -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LA -4.0
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
LA · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
62%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 12
+0.048Net EPA / play-0.157
+0.039 (9)Offense EPA / play-0.071 (22)
-0.009 (22)Defense EPA / play+0.085 (32)
44.7% (8)Offense success %40.5% (25)
GAME NARRATIVE
LA B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked LA. Projected margin: 4.0. Actual: 23. Off by 19.0 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 20.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LA
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
ARI
Home Underdog 5-3 ATS (63%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARI@LAW6 2026 | ARI 18, LA 16 | LA | L |
| ARI@LAW18 2025 | ARI 20, LA 37 | LA | W |
| LA@ARIW14 2025 | LA 45, ARI 17 | LA | W |
| ARI@LAW17 2024 | ARI 9, LA 13 | LA | W |
| LA@ARIW2 2024 | LA 10, ARI 41 | LA | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLA vs ARI
Our model takes Los Angeles Rams at 62% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project LA by 4.0. The market has LA at -3.0.
Los Angeles Rams won, LA 37, ARI 14. Our model had favored Los Angeles Rams at 62% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Los Angeles Rams at -3.0, meaning the book expects Los Angeles Rams to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 12, the Los Angeles Rams were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Arizona Cardinals were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 45.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.4, 0.4 above the market.
Week 12 of the 2023 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Arizona Cardinals, ARI 18, LA 16 in Week 6 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Los Angeles Rams: LA +0.048 against ARI -0.157.
