2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
BAL @ LAC – Week 12 2023
BAL
LAC
BAL
AWAY
20@10
BAL +10
FINAL · WEEK 12
2023 SEASON
LAC
HOME
TIER C
PICK: BAL
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: BAL 61%Projected margin: -2.1
BAL
PICK SIDE
-3.0
SPREAD
-2.1
PROJ MARGIN
-154
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BAL. Projected margin: 2.1. Actual: 10. Off by 7.9 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 7.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.0 | BAL market line | |
| MODEL ML | -154 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -170 | Won · +$0.65 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
BAL
Road Favorite 4-2 ATS (67%)
LAC
Divisional 0-5 ATS (0%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
BAL
Lamar Jackson
QB
331.2SEASON PPR
Zay Flowers
WR
206.4SEASON PPR
Gus Edwards
RB
187.0SEASON PPR
LAC
Keenan Allen
WR
278.9SEASON PPR
Justin Herbert
QB
234.2SEASON PPR
Austin Ekeler
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL@LACW12 2024 | BAL 30, LAC 23 | BAL | W |
| LAC@BALW6 2021 | LAC 6, BAL 34 | BAL | W |
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES