NYG @ NE · Week 13 2025

Q: Who is favored in New York Giants at New England Patriots?

Our model takes New England Patriots at 80% win probability, a Tier S pick. The margin models project NE by 11.2. The market has NE at -7.0.

Q: What is the projected total for New York Giants vs New England Patriots?

The model projects 46.3 combined points. The market total is 46.5.

Q: When do the New York Giants and New England Patriots play?

Week 13 of the 2025 season, MON 8:15 PM.

Q: Who won the last New York Giants vs New England Patriots game?

New York Giants, NE 7, NYG 10 in Week 12 of 2023.

Q: Which team has been better, the New York Giants or the New England Patriots?

By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, New England Patriots: NYG -0.075 against NE +0.205.

NYG

NYG

AWAY

15@33

NE BY 18

FINAL · WEEK 13

2025 SEASON

Gillette Stadium · Foxborough, MA

HOME

PICK: NE

TIER S

PICK WONATS ✓

NYG 20%

NE 80%

Model confidence: NE 80%

Our line: NE -11.2

PICK SIDE

-7.0

MARKET SPREAD

-11.2

OUR LINE

-389

OUR ML

—

LIVE ML

COVERED

VS SPREAD

TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 13

NYG	METRIC	NE
-0.075	NET EPA/PLAY	+0.205
+0.012	OFF EPA/PLAY	+0.158
+0.087	DEF EPA/PLAY	-0.047
381	POINTS FOR	490
439	POINTS AGAINST	320
53.4%	PASS RATE	54.1%

EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE

-0.075Net EPA / play+0.205

+0.012Offense EPA / play+0.158

+0.087Defense EPA / play-0.047

42.1%Offense success %48.4%

47.0%Defense success %

GAME NARRATIVE

NE S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.

CORRECT

Model correctly picked NE. Projected margin: 11.2. Actual: 18. Off by 6.8 points but directionally right.

COVERED

This pick covered the spread by 11.0 points.

COLD GAME

30°F at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.

Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.

BETTING LINE

SOURCE	NYG	NE
Closing line	+295	-375
Our fair price	+389	-389

Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.

SPREAD NE -7.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.36

OUR NUMBER

80%

MARKET, VIG REMOVED

76%

DIFFERENCE

+4%

Both figures are for NE. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.

GAME TOTAL

PREDICTED TOTAL

46.3

VEGAS LINE

46.5

ALL GAME TOTALS →

SITUATIONAL TRENDS

Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.

NYG

No noteworthy trends

NE

Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)

GAME WEATHER

VENUE

OUTDOOR

TEMP

30°F

WIND

5 MPH

COLD GAME

IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY

TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON

NYG

J.Dart

QB

241.6 SEASON PPR

W.Robinson

WR

217.9 SEASON PPR

T.Tracy

RB

160.8 SEASON PPR

NE

DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT

New York Giants

PASSING

J.Dart2272 yd · 15 TD · 5 INT

RUSHING

T.Tracy740 yd · 2 TD

J.Dart487 yd · 9 TD

D.Singletary437 yd · 5 TD

RECEIVING

W.Robinson92 rec · 1014 yd · 4 TD

D.Slayton37 rec · 538 yd · 1 TD

INJURY REPORTWEEK 13

NYG5 LISTED

Kayvon Thibodeaux

LB · Shoulder

OUT

Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles

LB · Neck

QUESTIONABLE

Victor Dimukeje

LB · Knee

QUESTIONABLE

HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING

GAME	SCORE	PICK	RESULT
NE@NYGW12 2023	NE 7, NYG 10	NE	L

FULL COMPARISON →

COMMON QUESTIONSNYG vs NE

QUESTIONS

Who is favored in New York Giants at New England Patriots?

What is the projected total for New York Giants vs New England Patriots?

When do the New York Giants and New England Patriots play?

Who won the last New York Giants vs New England Patriots game?

Which team has been better, the New York Giants or the New England Patriots?

WHAT PRO ADDS

Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.

See the Edge