Giants vs Patriots – Week 13 2025
NYG
NE
NYG
AWAY
15@33
NE BY 18
FINAL · WEEK 13
2025 SEASON
Gillette Stadium · Foxborough, MA
NE
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New York Giants 15, New England Patriots 33.
Going in, our model had favored New England Patriots at 80% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Giants, 2 Patriots.
Model confidence: NE 80%Our line: NE -11.2
ODDS
SPREAD
NE -7.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
NE -11.2
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
NE · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 13
-0.075Net EPA / play+0.205
+0.012 (17)Offense EPA / play+0.158 (1)
+0.087 (25)Defense EPA / play-0.047 (11)
42.1% (25)Offense success %48.4% (3)
GAME NARRATIVE
NE S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked NE. Projected margin: 11.2. Actual: 18. Off by 6.8 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 11.0 points.
COLD GAME
30°F at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NYG
No noteworthy trends
NE
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
30°F
WIND
5 MPH
COLD GAME
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNYG vs NE
Our model takes New England Patriots at 80% win probability, a Tier S pick. The margin models project NE by 11.2. The market has NE at -7.0.
New England Patriots won, NYG 15, NE 33. Our model had favored New England Patriots at 80% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has New England Patriots at -7.0, meaning the book expects New England Patriots to win by 7.0 points.
In Week 13, the New York Giants were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the New England Patriots were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 46.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.3, 0.2 below the market.
Week 13 of the 2025 season, MON 8:15 PM.
New York Giants, NE 7, NYG 10 in Week 12 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, New England Patriots: NYG -0.075 against NE +0.205.
