MIN @ SEA – Week 13 2025
MIN
SEA
MIN
AWAY
0@26
SEA BY 26
FINAL · WEEK 13
2025 SEASON
Lumen Field · Seattle, WA
SEA
HOME
Model confidence: SEA 79%Our line: SEA -11.0
SEA
PICK SIDE
-12.5
MARKET SPREAD
-11.0
OUR LINE
-382
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 13
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.016Net EPA / play+0.150
-0.116Offense EPA / play+0.033
-0.100Defense EPA / play-0.117
42.6%Offense success %46.3%
41.0%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
SEA A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked SEA. Projected margin: 11.0. Actual: 26. Off by 15.0 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 13.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | MIN | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +600 | -900 |
| Our fair price | +382 | -382 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD SEA -12.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.17
OUR NUMBER
79%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
86%
DIFFERENCE
-7%
Both figures are for SEA. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIN
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
SEA
Road Favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
45°F
WIND
2 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
MIN
J.Jefferson
WR
201.5 SEASON PPR
J.Addison
WR
135.1 SEASON PPR
J.Mason
RB
128.9 SEASON PPR
SEA
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Minnesota VikingsPASSING
J.McCarthy1632 yd · 11 TD · 12 INT
RUSHING
J.Mason758 yd · 6 TD
A.Jones548 yd · 2 TD
J.McCarthy181 yd · 4 TD
RECEIVING
J.Jefferson84 rec · 1048 yd · 2 TD
J.Addison42 rec · 610 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIN@SEAW16 2024 | MIN 27, SEA 24 | MIN | W |
| SEA@MINW3 2021 | SEA 17, MIN 30 | SEA | L |
| MIN@SEAW5 2020 | MIN 26, SEA 27 | SEA | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSMIN vs SEA
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Seattle Seahawks at 79% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project SEA by 11.0. The market has SEA at -12.5.
The model projects 46.1 combined points. The market total is 42.5.
Week 13 of the 2025 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Minnesota Vikings, MIN 27, SEA 24 in Week 16 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Seattle Seahawks: MIN -0.016 against SEA +0.150.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
