BUF @ PIT – Week 13 2025
BUF
PIT
BUF
AWAY
26@7
BUF BY 19
FINAL · WEEK 13
2025 SEASON
Acrisure Stadium · Pittsburgh, PA
PIT
HOME
Model confidence: BUF 60%Our line: BUF -3.5
BUF
PICK SIDE
-3.0
MARKET SPREAD
-3.5
OUR LINE
-151
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 13
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.152Net EPA / play+0.007
+0.136Offense EPA / play+0.025
-0.016Defense EPA / play+0.018
48.5%Offense success %44.0%
42.4%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BUF. Projected margin: 3.5. Actual: 19. Off by 15.5 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 16.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
HIGH WIND
16 MPH winds and 34°F at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | BUF | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -166 | +140 |
| Our fair price | -151 | +151 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD BUF -3.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.65
OUR NUMBER
60%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
60%
DIFFERENCE
+0%
Both figures are for BUF. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
BUF
Cold Weather 3-2 ATS (60%)
PIT
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
34°F
WIND
16 MPH
COLD GAMEWINDY
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
BUF
J.Allen
QB
364.6 SEASON PPR
J.Cook
RB
302.2 SEASON PPR
K.Shakir
WR
166.4 SEASON PPR
PIT
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Buffalo BillsPASSING
J.Allen3668 yd · 25 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
J.Cook1621 yd · 12 TD
J.Allen579 yd · 14 TD
R.Davis275 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
K.Shakir72 rec · 719 yd · 4 TD
D.Kincaid39 rec · 571 yd · 5 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PIT@BUFW5 2022 | PIT 3, BUF 38 | BUF | W |
| PIT@BUFW1 2021 | PIT 23, BUF 16 | BUF | L |
| PIT@BUFW14 2020 | PIT 15, BUF 26 | BUF | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSBUF vs PIT
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 60% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project BUF by 3.5. The market has BUF at -3.0.
The model projects 43.4 combined points. The market total is 44.5.
Week 13 of the 2025 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Buffalo Bills, PIT 3, BUF 38 in Week 5 of 2022.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Buffalo Bills: BUF +0.152 against PIT +0.007.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
