Bills vs Steelers – Week 13 2025
BUF
PIT
BUF
AWAY
26@7
BUF BY 19
FINAL · WEEK 13
2025 SEASON
Acrisure Stadium · Pittsburgh, PA
PIT
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Buffalo Bills 26, Pittsburgh Steelers 7.
Going in, our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 60% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 4 Bills, 2 Steelers.
Model confidence: BUF 60%Our line: BUF -3.5
ODDS
SPREAD
BUF -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BUF -3.5
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BUF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
60%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 13
+0.152Net EPA / play+0.007
+0.136 (3)Offense EPA / play+0.025 (16)
-0.016 (13)Defense EPA / play+0.018 (18)
48.5% (2)Offense success %44.0% (17)
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BUF. Projected margin: 3.5. Actual: 19. Off by 15.5 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 16.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
HIGH WIND
16 MPH winds and 34°F at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
BUF
Cold Weather 3-2 ATS (60%)
PIT
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
34°F
WIND
16 MPH
COLD GAMEWINDY
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PIT@BUFW5 2022 | PIT 3, BUF 38 | BUF | W |
| PIT@BUFW1 2021 | PIT 23, BUF 16 | BUF | L |
| PIT@BUFW14 2020 | PIT 15, BUF 26 | BUF | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSBUF vs PIT
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 60% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project BUF by 3.5. The market has BUF at -3.0.
Buffalo Bills won, BUF 26, PIT 7. Our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 60% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Buffalo Bills at -3.0, meaning the book expects Buffalo Bills to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 13, the Buffalo Bills were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Pittsburgh Steelers were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 44.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 43.4, 1.1 below the market.
Week 13 of the 2025 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Buffalo Bills, PIT 3, BUF 38 in Week 5 of 2022.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Buffalo Bills: BUF +0.152 against PIT +0.007.
