2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
PIT @ BUF – Week 1 2021
PIT
BUF
PIT
AWAY
23@16
PIT +7
FINAL · WEEK 1
2021 SEASON
BUF
HOME
TIER B
PICK: BUF
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: BUF 63%Projected margin: 6.8
BUF
PICK SIDE
-6.5
SPREAD
6.8
PROJ MARGIN
-255
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF B-tier pick misses. PIT takes it.
MISSED
Model picked BUF but PIT won. Projected margin was 6.8 -- the model overestimated by 13.8 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 13.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
HIGH WIND
17 MPH winds at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -6.5 | BUF market line | |
| MODEL ML | -255 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -267 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
PIT
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
BUF
Divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Windy 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
73°F
WIND
17 MPH
WINDY
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
PIT
Najee Harris
RB
300.7SEASON PPR
Diontae Johnson
WR
274.4SEASON PPR
Ben Roethlisberger
QB
218.1SEASON PPR
BUF
Josh Allen
QB
402.6SEASON PPR
Stefon Diggs
WR
285.5SEASON PPR
Devin Singletary
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF@PITW13 2025 | BUF 26, PIT 7 | BUF | W |
| PIT@BUFW5 2022 | PIT 3, BUF 38 | BUF | W |
| PIT@BUFW14 2020 | PIT 15, BUF 26 | BUF | W |
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES