PIT @ BUF – Week 1 2021
PIT
BUF
PIT
AWAY
23@16
PIT BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 1
2021 SEASON
Highmark Stadium · Orchard Park, NY
BUF
HOME
Model confidence: BUF 63%Our line: BUF -4.3
BUF
PICK SIDE
-6.5
MARKET SPREAD
-4.3
OUR LINE
-167
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2021 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.090Net EPA / play+0.242
-0.074Offense EPA / play+0.101
+0.016Defense EPA / play-0.141
39.1%Offense success %47.7%
43.9%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF B-tier pick misses. PIT takes it.
MISSED
Model picked BUF but PIT won. Projected margin was 4.3, the model overestimated by 11.3 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 13.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
HIGH WIND
17 MPH winds at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | PIT | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +232 | -267 |
| Our fair price | +167 | -167 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD BUF -6.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
63%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
71%
DIFFERENCE
-8%
Both figures are for BUF. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
PIT
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
BUF
Divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Windy 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
73°F
WIND
17 MPH
WINDY
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
PIT
Najee Harris
RB
300.7 SEASON PPR
Diontae Johnson
WR
274.4 SEASON PPR
Ben Roethlisberger
QB
218.1 SEASON PPR
BUF
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Pittsburgh SteelersPASSING
Ben Roethlisberger3740 yd · 22 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
Najee Harris1200 yd · 7 TD
Benny Snell98 yd · 0 TD
Chase Claypool96 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
Diontae Johnson107 rec · 1161 yd · 8 TD
Chase Claypool59 rec · 860 yd · 2 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF@PITW13 2025 | BUF 26, PIT 7 | BUF | W |
| PIT@BUFW5 2022 | PIT 3, BUF 38 | BUF | W |
| PIT@BUFW14 2020 | PIT 15, BUF 26 | BUF | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSPIT vs BUF
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 63% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project BUF by 4.3. The market has BUF at -6.5.
Week 1 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Buffalo Bills, BUF 26, PIT 7 in Week 13 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Buffalo Bills: PIT -0.090 against BUF +0.242.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the EdgeWEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
