Steelers vs Bills – Week 1 2021
PIT
BUF
PIT
AWAY
23@16
PIT BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 1
2021 SEASON
Highmark Stadium · Orchard Park, NY
BUF
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Pittsburgh Steelers 23, Buffalo Bills 16.
Going in, our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 63% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Bills.
Model confidence: BUF 63%Our line: BUF -4.3
ODDS
SPREAD
BUF -6.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BUF -4.3
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BUF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
63%
BUF · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
71%
DIFFERENCE
-8%
| SOURCE | PIT | BUF | BUF WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +232 | -267 | 71.3% |
WIN % is each book’s odds as a win chance, with the book’s cut taken out. The card above is their average.
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
-0.090Net EPA / play+0.242
-0.074 (25)Offense EPA / play+0.101 (4)
+0.016 (19)Defense EPA / play-0.141 (1)
39.1% (31)Offense success %47.7% (5)
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF B-tier pick misses. PIT takes it.
MISSED
Model picked BUF but PIT won. Projected margin was 4.3, the model overestimated by 11.3 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 13.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
HIGH WIND
17 MPH winds at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
PIT
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
BUF
Divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Windy 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
73°F
WIND
17 MPH
WINDY
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
PIT
Najee Harris
RB
300.7 SEASON PPR
Diontae Johnson
WR
274.4 SEASON PPR
Ben Roethlisberger
QB
218.1 SEASON PPR
BUF
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Pittsburgh SteelersPASSING
Ben Roethlisberger3740 yd · 22 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
Najee Harris1200 yd · 7 TD
Benny Snell98 yd · 0 TD
Chase Claypool96 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
Diontae Johnson107 rec · 1161 yd · 8 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF@PITW13 2025 | BUF 26, PIT 7 | BUF | W |
| PIT@BUFW5 2022 | PIT 3, BUF 38 | BUF | W |
| PIT@BUFW14 2020 | PIT 15, BUF 26 | BUF | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSPIT vs BUF
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 63% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project BUF by 4.3. The market has BUF at -6.5.
Pittsburgh Steelers won, PIT 23, BUF 16. Our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 63% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Buffalo Bills at -6.5, meaning the book expects Buffalo Bills to win by 6.5 points.
In Week 1, the Buffalo Bills were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Week 1 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Buffalo Bills, BUF 26, PIT 7 in Week 13 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Buffalo Bills: PIT -0.090 against BUF +0.242.
