NYJ @ CAR – Week 1 2021
NYJ
CAR
NYJ
AWAY
14@19
CAR BY 5
FINAL · WEEK 1
2021 SEASON
Bank of America Stadium · Charlotte, NC
CAR
HOME
Model confidence: CAR 53%Our line: CAR -1.0
CAR
PICK SIDE
-3.5
MARKET SPREAD
-1.0
OUR LINE
-112
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2021 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.220Net EPA / play-0.093
-0.092Offense EPA / play-0.138
+0.128Defense EPA / play-0.044
41.6%Offense success %40.9%
47.3%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
CAR C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked CAR. Projected margin: 1.0. Actual: 5. Off by 4.0 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 1.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | NYJ | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +164 | -184 |
| Our fair price | +112 | -112 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD CAR -3.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.61
OUR NUMBER
53%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
63%
DIFFERENCE
-10%
Both figures are for CAR. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NYJ
Home Underdog 3-5 ATS (38%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
CAR
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
81°F
WIND
0 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
NYJ
Michael Carter
RB
154.4 SEASON PPR
Zach Wilson
QB
151.9 SEASON PPR
Elijah Moore
WR
138.2 SEASON PPR
CAR
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New York JetsPASSING
Zach Wilson2334 yd · 9 TD · 11 INT
RUSHING
Michael Carter639 yd · 4 TD
Tevin Coleman356 yd · 0 TD
Ty Johnson238 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
Elijah Moore43 rec · 538 yd · 5 TD
Corey Davis34 rec · 492 yd · 4 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAR@NYJW7 2025 | CAR 13, NYJ 6 | CAR | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSNYJ vs CAR
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Carolina Panthers at 53% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project CAR by 1.0. The market has CAR at -3.5.
Week 1 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Carolina Panthers, CAR 13, NYJ 6 in Week 7 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Carolina Panthers: NYJ -0.220 against CAR -0.093.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
