Jets vs Panthers – Week 1 2021
NYJ
CAR
NYJ
AWAY
14@19
CAR BY 5
FINAL · WEEK 1
2021 SEASON
Bank of America Stadium · Charlotte, NC
CAR
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New York Jets 14, Carolina Panthers 19.
Going in, our model had favored Carolina Panthers at 53% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Jets, 1 Panthers.
Model confidence: CAR 53%Our line: CAR -1.0
ODDS
SPREAD
CAR -3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
CAR -1.0
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
CAR · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
53%
CAR · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
63%
DIFFERENCE
-10%
| SOURCE | NYJ | CAR | CAR WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +164 | -184 | 63.5% |
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
-0.220Net EPA / play-0.093
-0.092 (27)Offense EPA / play-0.138 (30)
+0.128 (32)Defense EPA / play-0.044 (7)
41.6% (23)Offense success %40.9% (27)
GAME NARRATIVE
CAR C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked CAR. Projected margin: 1.0. Actual: 5. Off by 4.0 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 1.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NYJ
Home Underdog 3-5 ATS (38%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
CAR
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
81°F
WIND
0 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
CAR
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New York JetsPASSING
Zach Wilson2334 yd · 9 TD · 11 INT
RECEIVING
Elijah Moore43 rec · 538 yd · 5 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAR@NYJW7 2025 | CAR 13, NYJ 6 | CAR | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNYJ vs CAR
Our model takes Carolina Panthers at 53% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project CAR by 1.0. The market has CAR at -3.5.
Carolina Panthers won, NYJ 14, CAR 19. Our model had favored Carolina Panthers at 53% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Carolina Panthers at -3.5, meaning the book expects Carolina Panthers to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 1, the New York Jets were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Carolina Panthers were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Week 1 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Carolina Panthers, CAR 13, NYJ 6 in Week 7 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Carolina Panthers: NYJ -0.220 against CAR -0.093.
