2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
SF @ DET – Week 1 2021
SF
DET
SF
AWAY
41@33
SF +8
FINAL · WEEK 1
2021 SEASON
DET
HOME
TIER B
PICK: SF
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: SF 60%Projected margin: -2.8
SF
PICK SIDE
-9.5
SPREAD
-2.8
PROJ MARGIN
-392
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
SF B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked SF. Projected margin: 2.8. Actual: 8. Off by 5.2 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 1.5 points -- a bad-beat loss.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -9.5 | SF market line | |
| MODEL ML | -392 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -415 | Won · +$0.26 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
SF
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
DET
Home Underdog 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
SF
Deebo Samuel Sr.
WR
339.0SEASON PPR
Jimmy Garoppolo
QB
227.5SEASON PPR
George Kittle
TE
198.0SEASON PPR
DET
Amon-Ra St. Brown
WR
227.3SEASON PPR
D'Andre Swift
RB
208.9SEASON PPR
Jared Goff
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DET@SFW17 2024 | DET 40, SF 34 | DET | W |
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES