SF @ DET – Week 1 2021
SF
DET
SF
AWAY
41@33
SF BY 8
FINAL · WEEK 1
2021 SEASON
Ford Field · Detroit, MI
DET
HOME
Model confidence: SF 60%Our line: SF -3.5
SF
PICK SIDE
-9.5
MARKET SPREAD
-3.5
OUR LINE
-151
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2021 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.120Net EPA / play-0.161
+0.087Offense EPA / play-0.063
-0.034Defense EPA / play+0.098
45.7%Offense success %42.0%
40.5%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
SF B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked SF. Projected margin: 3.5. Actual: 8. Off by 4.5 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 1.5 points, a bad-beat loss.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | SF | DET |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -415 | +344 |
| Our fair price | -151 | +151 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD SF -9.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.26
OUR NUMBER
60%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
78%
DIFFERENCE
-18%
Both figures are for SF. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
SF
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
DET
Home Underdog 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
SF
Deebo Samuel Sr.
WR
339.0 SEASON PPR
Jimmy Garoppolo
QB
227.5 SEASON PPR
George Kittle
TE
198.0 SEASON PPR
DET
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
San Francisco 49ersPASSING
Jimmy Garoppolo3810 yd · 20 TD · 12 INT
RUSHING
Elijah Mitchell963 yd · 5 TD
Deebo Samuel Sr.365 yd · 8 TD
Jeff Wilson294 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
Deebo Samuel Sr.77 rec · 1405 yd · 6 TD
George Kittle71 rec · 910 yd · 6 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DET@SFW17 2024 | DET 40, SF 34 | DET | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSSF vs DET
QUESTIONS
Our model takes San Francisco 49ers at 60% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project SF by 3.5. The market has SF at -9.5.
Week 1 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Detroit Lions, DET 40, SF 34 in Week 17 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, San Francisco 49ers: SF +0.120 against DET -0.161.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
