MIN @ CIN – Week 1 2021
MIN
CIN
MIN
AWAY
24@27
CIN BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 1
2021 SEASON
Paycor Stadium · Cincinnati, OH
CIN
HOME
Model confidence: MIN 58%Our line: MIN -2.8
MIN
PICK SIDE
-3.0
MARKET SPREAD
-2.8
OUR LINE
-139
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2021 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.035Net EPA / play+0.069
+0.017Offense EPA / play+0.057
-0.018Defense EPA / play-0.012
41.4%Offense success %44.2%
45.1%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
MIN B-tier pick misses. CIN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked MIN but CIN won. Projected margin was 2.8, the model overestimated by 5.8 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 6.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | MIN | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -135 | +122 |
| Our fair price | -139 | +139 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD MIN -3.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
58%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
56%
DIFFERENCE
+2%
Both figures are for MIN. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIN
No noteworthy trends
CIN
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
81°F
WIND
15 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
MIN
Justin Jefferson
WR
330.4 SEASON PPR
Kirk Cousins
QB
300.3 SEASON PPR
Dalvin Cook
RB
206.3 SEASON PPR
CIN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Minnesota VikingsPASSING
Kirk Cousins4221 yd · 33 TD · 7 INT
RUSHING
Dalvin Cook1159 yd · 6 TD
Alexander Mattison491 yd · 3 TD
Kirk Cousins115 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Justin Jefferson108 rec · 1616 yd · 10 TD
Adam Thielen67 rec · 726 yd · 10 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIN@MINW3 2025 | CIN 10, MIN 48 | CIN | L |
| MIN@CINW15 2023 | MIN 24, CIN 27 | CIN | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSMIN vs CIN
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Minnesota Vikings at 58% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project MIN by 2.8. The market has MIN at -3.0.
Week 1 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Minnesota Vikings, CIN 10, MIN 48 in Week 3 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Cincinnati Bengals: MIN +0.035 against CIN +0.069.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the EdgeWEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
