Vikings vs Bengals – Week 1 2021
MIN
CIN
MIN
AWAY
24@27
CIN BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 1
2021 SEASON
Paycor Stadium · Cincinnati, OH
CIN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Minnesota Vikings 24, Cincinnati Bengals 27.
Going in, our model had favored Minnesota Vikings at 58% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Vikings, 1 Bengals.
Model confidence: MIN 58%Our line: MIN -2.8
ODDS
SPREAD
MIN -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
MIN -2.8
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
MIN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
58%
MIN · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
56%
DIFFERENCE
+2%
| SOURCE | MIN | CIN | MIN WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -135 | +122 | 56.2% |
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
+0.035Net EPA / play+0.069
+0.017 (16)Offense EPA / play+0.057 (12)
-0.018 (12)Defense EPA / play-0.012 (13)
41.4% (24)Offense success %44.2% (17)
GAME NARRATIVE
MIN B-tier pick misses. CIN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked MIN but CIN won. Projected margin was 2.8, the model overestimated by 5.8 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 6.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIN
No noteworthy trends
CIN
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
81°F
WIND
15 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
CIN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIN@MINW3 2025 | CIN 10, MIN 48 | CIN | L |
| MIN@CINW15 2023 | MIN 24, CIN 27 | CIN | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSMIN vs CIN
Our model takes Minnesota Vikings at 58% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project MIN by 2.8. The market has MIN at -3.0.
Cincinnati Bengals won, MIN 24, CIN 27. Our model had favored Minnesota Vikings at 58% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Minnesota Vikings at -3.0, meaning the book expects Minnesota Vikings to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 1, the Minnesota Vikings were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Cincinnati Bengals were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Week 1 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Minnesota Vikings, CIN 10, MIN 48 in Week 3 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Cincinnati Bengals: MIN +0.035 against CIN +0.069.
