2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
MIN @ CIN – Week 1 2021
MIN
CIN
MIN
AWAY
24@27
CIN +3
FINAL · WEEK 1
2021 SEASON
CIN
HOME
TIER B
PICK: MIN
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: MIN 58%Projected margin: -1.5
MIN
PICK SIDE
-3.0
SPREAD
-1.5
PROJ MARGIN
-154
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
MIN B-tier pick misses. CIN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked MIN but CIN won. Projected margin was 1.5 -- the model overestimated by 4.5 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 6.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.0 | MIN market line | |
| MODEL ML | -154 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -135 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
MIN
No noteworthy trends
CIN
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
81°F
WIND
15 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
MIN
Justin Jefferson
WR
330.4SEASON PPR
Kirk Cousins
QB
300.3SEASON PPR
Dalvin Cook
RB
206.3SEASON PPR
CIN
Joe Burrow
QB
314.2SEASON PPR
Ja'Marr Chase
WR
304.6SEASON PPR
Joe Mixon
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIN@MINW3 2025 | CIN 10, MIN 48 | CIN | L |
| MIN@CINW15 2023 | MIN 24, CIN 27 | CIN | W |
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES