Broncos vs Giants – Week 1 2021
DEN
NYG
DEN
AWAY
27@13
DEN BY 14
FINAL · WEEK 1
2021 SEASON
MetLife Stadium · East Rutherford, NJ
NYG
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Denver Broncos 27, New York Giants 13.
Going in, our model had favored New York Giants at 52% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Giants.
Model confidence: NYG 52%Our line: NYG -0.7
ODDS
SPREAD
NYG +3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
NYG -0.7
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
NYG · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
52%
NYG · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
43%
DIFFERENCE
+9%
| SOURCE | DEN | NYG | NYG WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -139 | +125 | 43.1% |
WIN % is each book’s odds as a win chance, with the book’s cut taken out. The card above is their average.
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
+0.004Net EPA / play-0.192
+0.015 (17)Offense EPA / play-0.161 (32)
+0.011 (18)Defense EPA / play+0.031 (23)
44.7% (14)Offense success %39.3% (30)
GAME NARRATIVE
NYG C-tier pick misses. DEN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked NYG but DEN won. Projected margin was 0.7, the model overestimated by 14.7 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 11.0 points.
HIGH WIND
19 MPH winds at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DEN
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Windy 1-4 ATS (20%)
NYG
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
82°F
WIND
19 MPH
WINDY
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
DEN
204.9 SEASON PPR
Teddy Bridgewater
QB
202.7 SEASON PPR
Melvin Gordon
RB
195.1 SEASON PPR
NYG
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Denver BroncosPASSING
Teddy Bridgewater3052 yd · 18 TD · 7 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYG@DENW7 2025 | NYG 32, DEN 33 | DEN | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDEN vs NYG
Our model takes New York Giants at 52% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project NYG by 0.7. The market has NYG at +3.0.
Denver Broncos won, DEN 27, NYG 13. Our model had favored New York Giants at 52% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has New York Giants at +3.0, meaning the book expects New York Giants to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 1, the New York Giants were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Week 1 of the 2021 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Denver Broncos, NYG 32, DEN 33 in Week 7 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Denver Broncos: DEN +0.004 against NYG -0.192.
