Giants vs Broncos – Week 7 2025
NYG
DEN
NYG
AWAY
32@33
DEN BY 1
FINAL · WEEK 7
2025 SEASON
Empower Field at Mile High · Denver, CO
DEN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New York Giants 32, Denver Broncos 33.
Going in, our model had favored Denver Broncos at 77% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 5 Giants, 1 Broncos.
Model confidence: DEN 77%Our line: DEN -9.8
ODDS
SPREAD
DEN -7.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DEN -9.8
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DEN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 7
-0.075Net EPA / play+0.138
+0.012 (17)Offense EPA / play+0.050 (10)
+0.087 (25)Defense EPA / play-0.088 (6)
42.1% (25)Offense success %44.2% (16)
GAME NARRATIVE
DEN A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DEN. Projected margin: 9.8. Actual: 1. Off by 8.8 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 6.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NYG
No noteworthy trends
DEN
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Road Favorite 0-5 ATS (0%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
72°F
WIND
3 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 7
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN@NYGW1 2021 | DEN 27, NYG 13 | NYG | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 7 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNYG vs DEN
Our model takes Denver Broncos at 77% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project DEN by 9.8. The market has DEN at -7.5.
Denver Broncos won, NYG 32, DEN 33. Our model had favored Denver Broncos at 77% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Denver Broncos at -7.5, meaning the book expects Denver Broncos to win by 7.5 points.
In Week 7, the New York Giants were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Denver Broncos were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 39.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.9, 5.4 above the market.
Week 7 of the 2025 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Denver Broncos, DEN 27, NYG 13 in Week 1 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Denver Broncos: NYG -0.075 against DEN +0.138.
