NYG @ DEN – Week 7 2025
NYG
DEN
NYG
AWAY
32@33
DEN BY 1
FINAL · WEEK 7
2025 SEASON
Empower Field at Mile High · Denver, CO
DEN
HOME
Model confidence: DEN 77%Our line: DEN -9.8
DEN
PICK SIDE
-7.5
MARKET SPREAD
-9.8
OUR LINE
-326
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 7
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.075Net EPA / play+0.138
+0.012Offense EPA / play+0.050
+0.087Defense EPA / play-0.088
42.1%Offense success %44.2%
47.0%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
DEN A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DEN. Projected margin: 9.8. Actual: 1. Off by 8.8 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 6.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | NYG | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +330 | -425 |
| Our fair price | +326 | -326 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD DEN -7.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.34
OUR NUMBER
77%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
78%
DIFFERENCE
-1%
Both figures are for DEN. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NYG
No noteworthy trends
DEN
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Road Favorite 0-5 ATS (0%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
72°F
WIND
3 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
NYG
J.Dart
QB
241.6 SEASON PPR
W.Robinson
WR
217.9 SEASON PPR
T.Tracy
RB
160.8 SEASON PPR
DEN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New York GiantsPASSING
J.Dart2272 yd · 15 TD · 5 INT
RUSHING
T.Tracy740 yd · 2 TD
J.Dart487 yd · 9 TD
D.Singletary437 yd · 5 TD
RECEIVING
W.Robinson92 rec · 1014 yd · 4 TD
D.Slayton37 rec · 538 yd · 1 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 7
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN@NYGW1 2021 | DEN 27, NYG 13 | NYG | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSNYG vs DEN
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Denver Broncos at 77% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project DEN by 9.8. The market has DEN at -7.5.
The model projects 44.9 combined points. The market total is 39.5.
Week 7 of the 2025 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Denver Broncos, DEN 27, NYG 13 in Week 1 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Denver Broncos: NYG -0.075 against DEN +0.138.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 7 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
