Rams vs Jaguars – Week 7 2025
LA
JAX
LA
AWAY
35@7
LA BY 28
FINAL · WEEK 7
2025 SEASON
EverBank Stadium · Jacksonville, FL
JAX
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Los Angeles Rams 35, Jacksonville Jaguars 7.
Going in, our model had favored Los Angeles Rams at 62% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Rams, 2 Jaguars.
Model confidence: LA 62%Our line: LA -4.0
ODDS
SPREAD
LA -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LA -4.0
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
LA · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
62%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 7
+0.206Net EPA / play+0.136
+0.145 (2)Offense EPA / play+0.030 (14)
-0.061 (9)Defense EPA / play-0.105 (3)
51.8% (1)Offense success %44.4% (15)
GAME NARRATIVE
LA B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked LA. Projected margin: 4.0. Actual: 28. Off by 24.0 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 25.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LA
Road Favorite 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
JAX
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
59°F
WIND
9 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 7
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 7 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLA vs JAX
Our model takes Los Angeles Rams at 62% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project LA by 4.0. The market has LA at -3.0.
Los Angeles Rams won, LA 35, JAX 7. Our model had favored Los Angeles Rams at 62% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Los Angeles Rams at -3.0, meaning the book expects Los Angeles Rams to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 7, the Los Angeles Rams were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Jacksonville Jaguars were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 44.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.4, 0.9 above the market.
Week 7 of the 2025 season, SUN 9:30 AM.
Los Angeles Rams, JAX 7, LA 37 in Week 13 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Los Angeles Rams: LA +0.206 against JAX +0.136.
