2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
LA @ JAX – Week 7 2025
LA
JAX
LA
AWAY
35@7
LA +28
FINAL · WEEK 7
2025 SEASON
JAX
HOME
TIER B
PICK: LA
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: LA 62%Projected margin: -1.1
LA
PICK SIDE
-3.0
SPREAD
-1.1
PROJ MARGIN
-154
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
LA B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked LA. Projected margin: 1.1. Actual: 28. Off by 26.9 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 25.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.0 | LA market line | |
| MODEL ML | -154 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | — | Won · +$0.65 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
LA
Road Favorite 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
JAX
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
59°F
WIND
9 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
LA
P.Nacua
WR
375.0SEASON PPR
M.Stafford
QB
350.4SEASON PPR
K.Williams
RB
263.3SEASON PPR
JAX
T.Lawrence
QB
338.2SEASON PPR
T.Etienne
RB
253.9SEASON PPR
P.Washington
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 7
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| JAX@LAW13 2021 | JAX 7, LA 37 | LA | W |
WEEK 7 · OTHER GAMES