Texans vs Seahawks – Week 7 2025
HOU
SEA
HOU
AWAY
19@27
SEA BY 8
FINAL · WEEK 7
2025 SEASON
Lumen Field · Seattle, WA
SEA
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Houston Texans 19, Seattle Seahawks 27.
Going in, our model had favored Seattle Seahawks at 66% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Texans, 1 Seahawks.
Model confidence: SEA 66%Our line: SEA -5.6
ODDS
SPREAD
SEA -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
SEA -5.6
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
SEA · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
66%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 7
+0.118Net EPA / play+0.150
-0.013 (21)Offense EPA / play+0.033 (13)
-0.131 (1)Defense EPA / play-0.117 (2)
41.3% (28)Offense success %46.3% (7)
GAME NARRATIVE
SEA B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected SEA by 5.6. Actual: 8 points. The model was within 2.4 points of the real margin.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 5.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
HOU
No noteworthy trends
SEA
Road Favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
56°F
WIND
5 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 7
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| SEA@HOUW14 2021 | SEA 33, HOU 13 | SEA | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 7 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSHOU vs SEA
Our model takes Seattle Seahawks at 66% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project SEA by 5.6. The market has SEA at -3.0.
Seattle Seahawks won, HOU 19, SEA 27. Our model had favored Seattle Seahawks at 66% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Seattle Seahawks at -3.0, meaning the book expects Seattle Seahawks to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 7, the Houston Texans were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Seattle Seahawks were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 41.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.5, 3.0 above the market.
Week 7 of the 2025 season, MON 10:00 PM.
Seattle Seahawks, SEA 33, HOU 13 in Week 14 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Seattle Seahawks: HOU +0.118 against SEA +0.150.
