Seahawks vs Texans – Week 14 2021
SEA
HOU
SEA
AWAY
33@13
SEA BY 20
FINAL · WEEK 14
2021 SEASON
NRG Stadium · Houston, TX
HOU
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Seattle Seahawks 33, Houston Texans 13.
Going in, our model had favored Seattle Seahawks at 61% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 4 Seahawks, 2 Texans.
Model confidence: SEA 61%Our line: SEA -3.7
ODDS
SPREAD
SEA -10.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
SEA -3.7
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
SEA · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
61%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 14
+0.003Net EPA / play-0.212
+0.031 (14)Offense EPA / play-0.138 (31)
+0.028 (22)Defense EPA / play+0.074 (28)
43.2% (21)Offense success %37.4% (32)
GAME NARRATIVE
SEA B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked SEA. Projected margin: 3.7. Actual: 20. Off by 16.3 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 10.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
SEA
No noteworthy trends
HOU
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 5-3 ATS (63%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
RETRACTABLE
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
HOU
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Seattle SeahawksPASSING
Russell Wilson3113 yd · 25 TD · 6 INT
RUSHING
Rashaad Penny749 yd · 6 TD
Alex Collins411 yd · 2 TD
Chris Carson232 yd · 3 TD
RECEIVING
Tyler Lockett73 rec · 1175 yd · 8 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 14
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU@SEAW7 2025 | HOU 19, SEA 27 | SEA | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 14 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSSEA vs HOU
Our model takes Seattle Seahawks at 61% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project SEA by 3.7. The market has SEA at -10.0.
Seattle Seahawks won, SEA 33, HOU 13. Our model had favored Seattle Seahawks at 61% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Seattle Seahawks at -10.0, meaning the book expects Seattle Seahawks to win by 10.0 points.
In Week 14, the Seattle Seahawks were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Houston Texans were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 40.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 48.2, 7.7 above the market.
Week 14 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Seattle Seahawks, HOU 19, SEA 27 in Week 7 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Seattle Seahawks: SEA +0.003 against HOU -0.212.
