Giants vs Chargers – Week 14 2021
NYG
LAC
NYG
AWAY
21@37
LAC BY 16
FINAL · WEEK 14
2021 SEASON
SoFi Stadium · Inglewood, CA
LAC
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New York Giants 21, Los Angeles Chargers 37.
Going in, our model had favored Los Angeles Chargers at 59% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Giants, 3 Chargers.
Model confidence: LAC 59%Our line: LAC -3.0
ODDS
SPREAD
LAC -9.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LAC -3.0
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
LAC · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
59%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 14
-0.192Net EPA / play+0.061
-0.161 (32)Offense EPA / play+0.095 (6)
+0.031 (23)Defense EPA / play+0.033 (24)
39.3% (30)Offense success %47.6% (6)
GAME NARRATIVE
LAC B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked LAC. Projected margin: 3.0. Actual: 16. Off by 13.0 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 6.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NYG
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
LAC
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
LAC
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 14
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LAC@NYGW4 2025 | LAC 18, NYG 21 | LAC | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 14 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNYG vs LAC
Our model takes Los Angeles Chargers at 59% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project LAC by 3.0. The market has LAC at -9.5.
Los Angeles Chargers won, NYG 21, LAC 37. Our model had favored Los Angeles Chargers at 59% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Los Angeles Chargers at -9.5, meaning the book expects Los Angeles Chargers to win by 9.5 points.
In Week 14, the New York Giants were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Los Angeles Chargers were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 44.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.4, 2.4 above the market.
Week 14 of the 2021 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
New York Giants, LAC 18, NYG 21 in Week 4 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Los Angeles Chargers: NYG -0.192 against LAC +0.061.
