DET @ DEN – Week 14 2021
DET
DEN
DET
AWAY
10@38
DEN BY 28
FINAL · WEEK 14
2021 SEASON
Empower Field at Mile High · Denver, CO
DEN
HOME
Model confidence: DEN 64%Our line: DEN -4.7
DEN
PICK SIDE
-13.0
MARKET SPREAD
-4.7
OUR LINE
-174
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 14
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2021 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.161Net EPA / play+0.004
-0.063Offense EPA / play+0.015
+0.098Defense EPA / play+0.011
42.0%Offense success %44.7%
46.0%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
DEN B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DEN. Projected margin: 4.7. Actual: 28. Off by 23.3 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 15.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | DET | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +495 | -635 |
| Our fair price | +174 | -174 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD DEN -13.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.15
OUR NUMBER
64%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
84%
DIFFERENCE
-20%
Both figures are for DEN. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DET
Home Underdog 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)
DEN
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Windy 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
63°F
WIND
8 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
DET
Amon-Ra St. Brown
WR
227.3 SEASON PPR
D'Andre Swift
RB
208.9 SEASON PPR
Jared Goff
QB
194.5 SEASON PPR
DEN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Detroit LionsPASSING
Jared Goff3245 yd · 19 TD · 8 INT
RUSHING
D'Andre Swift617 yd · 5 TD
Jamaal Williams601 yd · 3 TD
Craig Reynolds230 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
Amon-Ra St. Brown90 rec · 912 yd · 5 TD
T.J. Hockenson61 rec · 583 yd · 4 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 14
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN@DETW15 2023 | DEN 17, DET 42 | DET | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSDET vs DEN
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Denver Broncos at 64% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project DEN by 4.7. The market has DEN at -13.0.
The model projects 46.2 combined points. The market total is 42.0.
Week 14 of the 2021 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Detroit Lions, DEN 17, DET 42 in Week 15 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Denver Broncos: DET -0.161 against DEN +0.004.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 14 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
