2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
DET @ DEN – Week 14 2021
DET
DEN
DET
AWAY
10@38
DEN +28
FINAL · WEEK 14
2021 SEASON
DEN
HOME
TIER B
PICK: DEN
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: DEN 64%Projected margin: 5.1
DEN
PICK SIDE
-13.0
SPREAD
5.1
PROJ MARGIN
-649
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
DEN B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DEN. Projected margin: 5.1. Actual: 28. Off by 22.9 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 15.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -13.0 | DEN market line | |
| MODEL ML | -649 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -635 | Won · +$0.15 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
DET
Home Underdog 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)
DEN
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Windy 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
63°F
WIND
8 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
DET
Amon-Ra St. Brown
WR
227.3SEASON PPR
D'Andre Swift
RB
208.9SEASON PPR
Jared Goff
QB
194.5SEASON PPR
DEN
Javonte Williams
RB
204.9SEASON PPR
Teddy Bridgewater
QB
202.7SEASON PPR
Melvin Gordon
INJURY REPORTWEEK 14
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN@DETW15 2023 | DEN 17, DET 42 | DET | W |
WEEK 14 · OTHER GAMES