Lions vs Broncos – Week 14 2021
DET
DEN
DET
AWAY
10@38
DEN BY 28
FINAL · WEEK 14
2021 SEASON
Empower Field at Mile High · Denver, CO
DEN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Detroit Lions 10, Denver Broncos 38.
Going in, our model had favored Denver Broncos at 64% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 4 Lions.
Model confidence: DEN 64%Our line: DEN -4.7
ODDS
SPREAD
DEN -13.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DEN -4.7
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DEN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
64%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 14
-0.161Net EPA / play+0.004
-0.063 (23)Offense EPA / play+0.015 (17)
+0.098 (30)Defense EPA / play+0.011 (18)
42.0% (22)Offense success %44.7% (14)
GAME NARRATIVE
DEN B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DEN. Projected margin: 4.7. Actual: 28. Off by 23.3 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 15.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DET
Home Underdog 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)
DEN
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Windy 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
63°F
WIND
8 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 14
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN@DETW15 2023 | DEN 17, DET 42 | DET | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 14 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDET vs DEN
Our model takes Denver Broncos at 64% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project DEN by 4.7. The market has DEN at -13.0.
Denver Broncos won, DET 10, DEN 38. Our model had favored Denver Broncos at 64% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Denver Broncos at -13.0, meaning the book expects Denver Broncos to win by 13.0 points.
In Week 14, the Detroit Lions were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 42.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.2, 4.2 above the market.
Week 14 of the 2021 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Detroit Lions, DEN 17, DET 42 in Week 15 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Denver Broncos: DET -0.161 against DEN +0.004.
