Bears vs Packers – Week 14 2021
CHI
GB
CHI
AWAY
30@45
GB BY 15
FINAL · WEEK 14
2021 SEASON
Lambeau Field · Green Bay, WI
GB
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Chicago Bears 30, Green Bay Packers 45.
Going in, our model had favored Green Bay Packers at 71% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Bears, 2 Packers.
Model confidence: GB 71%Our line: GB -7.4
ODDS
SPREAD
GB -11.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
GB -7.4
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
GB · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
71%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 14
-0.127Net EPA / play+0.127
-0.100 (29)Offense EPA / play+0.134 (3)
+0.026 (21)Defense EPA / play+0.006 (16)
41.2% (26)Offense success %48.6% (3)
GAME NARRATIVE
GB A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked GB. Projected margin: 7.4. Actual: 15. Off by 7.6 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 8 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 3.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CHI
Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)Home Underdog 1-4 ATS (20%)
GB
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
36°F
WIND
8 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
CHI
219.7 SEASON PPR
195.0 SEASON PPR
126.8 SEASON PPR
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 14
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHI@GBW5 2026 | CHI 7, GB 31 | CHI | L |
| GB@CHIW16 2025 | GB 16, CHI 22 | CHI | W |
| CHI@GBW14 2025 | CHI 21, GB 28 | GB | W |
| CHI@GBW18 2024 | CHI 24, GB 22 | GB | L |
| GB@CHIW11 2024 | GB 20, CHI 19 | GB | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 14 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCHI vs GB
Our model takes Green Bay Packers at 71% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project GB by 7.4. The market has GB at -11.5.
Green Bay Packers won, CHI 30, GB 45. Our model had favored Green Bay Packers at 71% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Green Bay Packers at -11.5, meaning the book expects Green Bay Packers to win by 11.5 points.
In Week 14, the Chicago Bears were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Green Bay Packers were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 43.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.2, 1.2 above the market.
Week 14 of the 2021 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
Green Bay Packers, CHI 7, GB 31 in Week 5 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Green Bay Packers: CHI -0.127 against GB +0.127.
