2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
LV @ KC – Week 14 2021
LV
KC
LV
AWAY
9@48
KC +39
FINAL · WEEK 14
2021 SEASON
KC
HOME
TIER A
PICK: KC
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: KC 66%Projected margin: 6.8
KC
PICK SIDE
-10.0
SPREAD
6.8
PROJ MARGIN
-422
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
KC A-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked KC. Projected margin: 6.8. Actual: 39. Off by 32.2 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 29.0 points.
HIGH WIND
19 MPH winds at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. A-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -10.0 | KC market line | |
| MODEL ML | -422 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -444 | Won · +$0.24 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
LV
Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
KC
Windy 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
47°F
WIND
19 MPH
WINDY
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
LV
Hunter Renfrow
WR
259.1SEASON PPR
Derek Carr
QB
257.0SEASON PPR
Josh Jacobs
RB
226.0SEASON PPR
KC
Patrick Mahomes
QB
361.7SEASON PPR
Tyreek Hill
WR
296.5SEASON PPR
Travis Kelce
TE
INJURY REPORTWEEK 14
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| KC@LVW18 2025 | KC 12, LV 14 | KC | L |
| LV@KCW7 2025 | LV 0, KC 31 | KC | W |
| LV@KCW13 2024 | LV 17, KC 19 | KC | W |
| KC@LVW8 2024 | KC 27, LV 20 | KC | W |
| LV@KCW16 2023 | LV 20, KC 14 | KC | L |
WEEK 14 · OTHER GAMES