Cowboys vs Commanders – Week 14 2021
DAL
WAS
DAL
AWAY
27@20
DAL BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 14
2021 SEASON
Northwest Stadium · Landover, MD
WAS
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Dallas Cowboys 27, Washington Commanders 20.
Going in, our model had favored Dallas Cowboys at 52% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Commanders.
Model confidence: DAL 52%Our line: DAL -0.8
ODDS
SPREAD
DAL -6.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DAL -0.8
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DAL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
52%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 14
+0.187Net EPA / play-0.124
+0.096 (5)Offense EPA / play-0.057 (21)
-0.091 (3)Defense EPA / play+0.067 (26)
47.0% (7)Offense success %43.9% (20)
GAME NARRATIVE
DAL B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DAL. Projected margin: 0.8. Actual: 7. Off by 6.2 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 0.5 points.
HIGH WIND
17 MPH winds at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DAL
Divisional 6-0 ATS (100%)Road Favorite 5-0 ATS (100%)
WAS
Divisional 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
48°F
WIND
17 MPH
WINDY
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
WAS
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 14
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| WAS@DALW2 2026 | WAS 20, DAL 37 | DAL | W |
| DAL@WASW17 2025 | DAL 30, WAS 23 | DAL | W |
| WAS@DALW7 2025 | WAS 22, DAL 44 | DAL | W |
| WAS@DALW18 2024 | WAS 23, DAL 19 | DAL | L |
| DAL@WASW12 2024 | DAL 34, WAS 26 | WAS | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 14 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDAL vs WAS
Our model takes Dallas Cowboys at 52% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project DAL by 0.8. The market has DAL at -6.5.
Dallas Cowboys won, DAL 27, WAS 20. Our model had favored Dallas Cowboys at 52% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Dallas Cowboys at -6.5, meaning the book expects Dallas Cowboys to win by 6.5 points.
In Week 14, the Washington Commanders were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 48.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.8, 1.2 below the market.
Week 14 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Dallas Cowboys, WAS 20, DAL 37 in Week 2 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Dallas Cowboys: DAL +0.187 against WAS -0.124.
