2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
NO @ NYJ – Week 14 2021
NO
NYJ
NO
AWAY
30@9
NO +21
FINAL · WEEK 14
2021 SEASON
NYJ
HOME
TIER B
PICK: NO
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: NO 62%Projected margin: -4.6
NO
PICK SIDE
-4.5
SPREAD
-4.6
PROJ MARGIN
-191
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
NO B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked NO. Projected margin: 4.6. Actual: 21. Off by 16.4 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 16.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -4.5 | NO market line | |
| MODEL ML | -191 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -194 | Won · +$0.52 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
NO
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
NYJ
Home Underdog 3-5 ATS (38%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
46°F
WIND
13 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
NO
Alvin Kamara
RB
234.7SEASON PPR
Marquez Callaway
WR
151.8SEASON PPR
Taysom Hill
TE
121.7SEASON PPR
NYJ
Michael Carter
RB
154.4SEASON PPR
Zach Wilson
QB
151.9SEASON PPR
Elijah Moore
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 14
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ@NOW16 2025 | NYJ 6, NO 29 | NO | W |
WEEK 14 · OTHER GAMES