Commanders vs Cowboys – Week 7 2025
WAS
DAL
WAS
AWAY
22@44
DAL BY 22
FINAL · WEEK 7
2025 SEASON
AT&T Stadium · Arlington, TX
DAL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Washington Commanders 22, Dallas Cowboys 44.
Going in, our model had favored Dallas Cowboys at 50% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Commanders, 2 Cowboys.
Model confidence: DAL 50%Our line: DAL +0.0
ODDS
SPREAD
DAL -1.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DAL +0.0
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DAL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
50%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 7
-0.137Net EPA / play-0.070
+0.005 (18)Offense EPA / play+0.097 (5)
+0.142 (30)Defense EPA / play+0.167 (32)
45.6% (10)Offense success %46.6% (6)
GAME NARRATIVE
DAL C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DAL. Projected margin: 0.0. Actual: 22. Off by 22.0 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 20.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
WAS
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
DAL
Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 7
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| WAS@DALW2 2026 | WAS 20, DAL 37 | DAL | W |
| DAL@WASW17 2025 | DAL 30, WAS 23 | DAL | W |
| WAS@DALW18 2024 | WAS 23, DAL 19 | DAL | L |
| DAL@WASW12 2024 | DAL 34, WAS 26 | WAS | L |
| DAL@WASW18 2023 | DAL 38, WAS 10 | DAL | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 7 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSWAS vs DAL
Our model takes Dallas Cowboys at 50% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project WAS by 0.0. The market has DAL at -1.5.
Dallas Cowboys won, WAS 22, DAL 44. Our model had favored Dallas Cowboys at 50% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Dallas Cowboys at -1.5, meaning the book expects Dallas Cowboys to win by 1.5 points.
In Week 7, the Washington Commanders were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Dallas Cowboys were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 54.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.1, 8.4 below the market.
Week 7 of the 2025 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Dallas Cowboys, WAS 20, DAL 37 in Week 2 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Dallas Cowboys: WAS -0.137 against DAL -0.070.
