2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
MIA @ CLE – Week 7 2025
MIA
CLE
MIA
AWAY
6@31
CLE +25
FINAL · WEEK 7
2025 SEASON
CLE
HOME
TIER B
PICK: MIA
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: MIA 62%Projected margin: -1.4
MIA
PICK SIDE
+2.5
SPREAD
-1.4
PROJ MARGIN
+143
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
MIA B-tier pick misses. CLE takes it.
MISSED
Model picked MIA but CLE won. Projected margin was 1.4 -- the model overestimated by 26.4 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 22.5 points.
HIGH WIND
17 MPH winds at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +2.5 | MIA market line | |
| MODEL ML | +143 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | +143 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
MIA
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
CLE
Home Underdog 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
65°F
WIND
17 MPH
WINDY
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
MIA
D.Achane
RB
322.8SEASON PPR
J.Waddle
WR
194.1SEASON PPR
T.Tagovailoa
QB
160.7SEASON PPR
CLE
H.Fannin
TE
186.4SEASON PPR
Q.Judkins
RB
169.8SEASON PPR
J.Jeudy
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 7
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA@CLEW17 2024 | MIA 20, CLE 3 | MIA | W |
| CLE@MIAW10 2022 | CLE 17, MIA 39 | MIA | W |
WEEK 7 · OTHER GAMES