Dolphins vs Browns – Week 7 2025
MIA
CLE
MIA
AWAY
6@31
CLE BY 25
FINAL · WEEK 7
2025 SEASON
Huntington Bank Field · Cleveland, OH
CLE
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Miami Dolphins 6, Cleveland Browns 31.
Going in, our model had favored Miami Dolphins at 62% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Dolphins, 1 Browns.
Model confidence: MIA 62%Our line: MIA -4.2
ODDS
SPREAD
MIA +2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
MIA -4.2
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
MIA · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
62%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 7
-0.105Net EPA / play-0.094
-0.017 (22)Offense EPA / play-0.190 (31)
+0.088 (26)Defense EPA / play-0.096 (5)
41.9% (27)Offense success %34.5% (32)
GAME NARRATIVE
MIA B-tier pick misses. CLE takes it.
MISSED
Model picked MIA but CLE won. Projected margin was 4.2, the model overestimated by 29.2 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 22.5 points.
HIGH WIND
17 MPH winds at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIA
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
CLE
Home Underdog 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
65°F
WIND
17 MPH
WINDY
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 7
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA@CLEW17 2024 | MIA 20, CLE 3 | MIA | W |
| CLE@MIAW10 2022 | CLE 17, MIA 39 | MIA | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 7 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSMIA vs CLE
Our model takes Miami Dolphins at 62% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project MIA by 4.2. The market has MIA at +2.5.
Cleveland Browns won, MIA 6, CLE 31. Our model had favored Miami Dolphins at 62% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Miami Dolphins at +2.5, meaning the book expects Miami Dolphins to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 7, the Miami Dolphins were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Cleveland Browns were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 34.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 43.7, 9.2 above the market.
Week 7 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Miami Dolphins, MIA 20, CLE 3 in Week 17 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Cleveland Browns: MIA -0.105 against CLE -0.094.
