MIA @ CLE – Week 7 2025
MIA
CLE
MIA
AWAY
6@31
CLE BY 25
FINAL · WEEK 7
2025 SEASON
Huntington Bank Field · Cleveland, OH
CLE
HOME
Model confidence: MIA 62%Our line: MIA -4.2
MIA
PICK SIDE
+2.5
MARKET SPREAD
-4.2
OUR LINE
-165
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 7
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.105Net EPA / play-0.094
-0.017Offense EPA / play-0.190
+0.088Defense EPA / play-0.096
41.9%Offense success %34.5%
48.5%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
MIA B-tier pick misses. CLE takes it.
MISSED
Model picked MIA but CLE won. Projected margin was 4.2, the model overestimated by 29.2 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 22.5 points.
HIGH WIND
17 MPH winds at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | MIA | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +124 | -148 |
| Our fair price | -165 | +165 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD MIA +2.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
62%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
43%
DIFFERENCE
+19%
Both figures are for MIA. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIA
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
CLE
Home Underdog 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
65°F
WIND
17 MPH
WINDY
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
MIA
D.Achane
RB
322.8 SEASON PPR
J.Waddle
WR
194.1 SEASON PPR
T.Tagovailoa
QB
160.7 SEASON PPR
CLE
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Miami DolphinsPASSING
T.Tagovailoa2660 yd · 20 TD · 15 INT
RUSHING
D.Achane1350 yd · 8 TD
J.Wright288 yd · 2 TD
O.Gordon199 yd · 3 TD
RECEIVING
J.Waddle64 rec · 910 yd · 6 TD
D.Achane67 rec · 488 yd · 4 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 7
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA@CLEW17 2024 | MIA 20, CLE 3 | MIA | W |
| CLE@MIAW10 2022 | CLE 17, MIA 39 | MIA | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSMIA vs CLE
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Miami Dolphins at 62% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project MIA by 4.2. The market has MIA at +2.5.
The model projects 43.7 combined points. The market total is 34.5.
Week 7 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Miami Dolphins, MIA 20, CLE 3 in Week 17 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Cleveland Browns: MIA -0.105 against CLE -0.094.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 7 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
