Browns vs Dolphins – Week 10 2022
CLE
MIA
CLE
AWAY
17@39
MIA BY 22
FINAL · WEEK 10
2022 SEASON
Hard Rock Stadium · Miami Gardens, FL
MIA
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Cleveland Browns 17, Miami Dolphins 39.
Going in, our model had favored Miami Dolphins at 63% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Browns, 1 Dolphins.
Model confidence: MIA 63%Our line: MIA -4.5
ODDS
SPREAD
MIA -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
MIA -4.5
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
MIA · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
63%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 10
-0.001Net EPA / play+0.039
+0.012 (10)Offense EPA / play+0.047 (7)
+0.014 (22)Defense EPA / play+0.008 (20)
44.0% (19)Offense success %44.5% (16)
GAME NARRATIVE
MIA B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked MIA. Projected margin: 4.5. Actual: 22. Off by 17.5 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 19.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CLE
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
MIA
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
85°F
WIND
7 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
MIA
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA@CLEW7 2025 | MIA 6, CLE 31 | MIA | L |
| MIA@CLEW17 2024 | MIA 20, CLE 3 | MIA | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCLE vs MIA
Our model takes Miami Dolphins at 63% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project MIA by 4.5. The market has MIA at -3.0.
Miami Dolphins won, CLE 17, MIA 39. Our model had favored Miami Dolphins at 63% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Miami Dolphins at -3.0, meaning the book expects Miami Dolphins to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 10, the Cleveland Browns were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Miami Dolphins were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 49.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.1, 3.9 below the market.
Week 10 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Cleveland Browns, MIA 6, CLE 31 in Week 7 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Miami Dolphins: CLE -0.001 against MIA +0.039.
