Commanders vs Eagles – Week 10 2022
WAS
PHI
WAS
AWAY
32@21
WAS BY 11
FINAL · WEEK 10
2022 SEASON
Lincoln Financial Field · Philadelphia, PA
PHI
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Washington Commanders 32, Philadelphia Eagles 21.
Going in, our model had favored Philadelphia Eagles at 75% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 3 Commanders, 2 Eagles.
Model confidence: PHI 75%Our line: PHI -9.2
ODDS
SPREAD
PHI -11.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
PHI -9.2
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
PHI · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 10
-0.003Net EPA / play+0.172
-0.078 (26)Offense EPA / play+0.107 (3)
-0.075 (4)Defense EPA / play-0.064 (5)
40.4% (28)Offense success %48.3% (3)
GAME NARRATIVE
PHI A+-tier pick misses. WAS takes it.
MISSED
Model picked PHI but WAS won. Projected margin was 9.2, the model overestimated by 20.2 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 22.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
WAS
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
PHI
Road Favorite 2-5 ATS (29%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
43°F
WIND
6 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
WAS
Terry McLaurin
WR
229.0 SEASON PPR
Curtis Samuel
WR
176.3 SEASON PPR
Antonio Gibson
RB
165.9 SEASON PPR
PHI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Washington CommandersPASSING
Taylor Heinicke1859 yd · 12 TD · 6 INT
RECEIVING
Terry McLaurin77 rec · 1191 yd · 5 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| WAS@PHIW1 2026 | WAS 22, PHI 24 | PHI | W |
| WAS@PHIW18 2025 | WAS 24, PHI 17 | PHI | L |
| PHI@WASW16 2025 | PHI 29, WAS 18 | PHI | W |
| PHI@WASW16 2024 | PHI 33, WAS 36 | PHI | L |
| WAS@PHIW11 2024 | WAS 18, PHI 26 | PHI | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSWAS vs PHI
Our model takes Philadelphia Eagles at 75% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project PHI by 9.2. The market has PHI at -11.0.
Washington Commanders won, WAS 32, PHI 21. Our model had favored Philadelphia Eagles at 75% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Philadelphia Eagles at -11.0, meaning the book expects Philadelphia Eagles to win by 11.0 points.
In Week 10, the Washington Commanders were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Philadelphia Eagles were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 43.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.6, 3.6 above the market.
Week 10 of the 2022 season, MON 8:15 PM.
Philadelphia Eagles, WAS 22, PHI 24 in Week 1 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Philadelphia Eagles: WAS -0.003 against PHI +0.172.
