2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
WAS @ PHI – Week 10 2022
WAS
PHI
WAS
AWAY
32@21
WAS +11
FINAL · WEEK 10
2022 SEASON
PHI
HOME
TIER A+
PICK: PHI
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: PHI 75%Projected margin: 8.2
PHI
PICK SIDE
-11.0
SPREAD
8.2
PROJ MARGIN
-487
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
PHI A+-tier pick misses. WAS takes it.
MISSED
Model picked PHI but WAS won. Projected margin was 8.2 -- the model overestimated by 19.2 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 22.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -11.0 | PHI market line | |
| MODEL ML | -487 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -501 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
WAS
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
PHI
Road Favorite 2-5 ATS (29%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
43°F
WIND
6 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
WAS
Terry McLaurin
WR
229.0SEASON PPR
Curtis Samuel
WR
176.3SEASON PPR
Antonio Gibson
RB
165.9SEASON PPR
PHI
Jalen Hurts
QB
378.0SEASON PPR
A.J. Brown
WR
299.6SEASON PPR
DeVonta Smith
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| WAS@PHIW18 2025 | WAS 24, PHI 17 | PHI | L |
| PHI@WASW16 2025 | PHI 29, WAS 18 | PHI | W |
| PHI@WASW16 2024 | PHI 33, WAS 36 | PHI | L |
| WAS@PHIW11 2024 | WAS 18, PHI 26 | PHI | W |
| PHI@WASW8 2023 | PHI 38, WAS 31 | PHI | W |
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES