Broncos vs Titans – Week 10 2022
DEN
TEN
DEN
AWAY
10@17
TEN BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 10
2022 SEASON
Nissan Stadium · Nashville, TN
TEN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Denver Broncos 10, Tennessee Titans 17.
Going in, our model had favored Tennessee Titans at 67% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Broncos, 5 Titans.
Model confidence: TEN 67%Our line: TEN -5.8
ODDS
SPREAD
TEN -2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
TEN -5.8
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
TEN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
67%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 10
-0.060Net EPA / play-0.064
-0.109 (30)Offense EPA / play-0.059 (25)
-0.049 (9)Defense EPA / play+0.004 (18)
38.1% (31)Offense success %41.1% (22)
GAME NARRATIVE
TEN B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected TEN by 5.8. Actual: 7 points. The model was within 1.2 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 4.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DEN
No noteworthy trends
TEN
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
36°F
WIND
9 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
TEN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Denver BroncosPASSING
Russell Wilson3524 yd · 16 TD · 11 INT
RUSHING
Latavius Murray703 yd · 5 TD
Melvin Gordon318 yd · 2 TD
Russell Wilson277 yd · 3 TD
RECEIVING
Jerry Jeudy67 rec · 972 yd · 6 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEN@DENW1 2025 | TEN 12, DEN 20 | DEN | W |
| TEN@DENW1 2020 | TEN 16, DEN 14 | TEN | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDEN vs TEN
Our model takes Tennessee Titans at 67% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project TEN by 5.8. The market has TEN at -2.5.
Tennessee Titans won, DEN 10, TEN 17. Our model had favored Tennessee Titans at 67% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Tennessee Titans at -2.5, meaning the book expects Tennessee Titans to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 10, the Denver Broncos were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Tennessee Titans were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 40.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 43.7, 3.7 above the market.
Week 10 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Denver Broncos, TEN 12, DEN 20 in Week 1 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Denver Broncos: DEN -0.060 against TEN -0.064.
