MIN @ BUF – Week 10 2022
MIN
BUF
MIN
AWAY
33@30
MIN BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 10
2022 SEASON
Highmark Stadium · Orchard Park, NY
BUF
HOME
Model confidence: BUF 59%Our line: BUF -3.1
BUF
PICK SIDE
-6.5
MARKET SPREAD
-3.1
OUR LINE
-144
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 10
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2022 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.023Net EPA / play+0.168
-0.011Offense EPA / play+0.116
+0.012Defense EPA / play-0.052
44.9%Offense success %49.0%
45.3%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF C-tier pick misses. MIN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked BUF but MIN won. Projected margin was 3.1, the model overestimated by 6.1 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 9.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | MIN | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +230 | -264 |
| Our fair price | +144 | -144 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD BUF -6.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
59%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
71%
DIFFERENCE
-12%
Both figures are for BUF. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIN
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
BUF
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
38°F
WIND
11 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
MIN
Justin Jefferson
WR
368.7 SEASON PPR
Kirk Cousins
QB
291.6 SEASON PPR
Dalvin Cook
RB
237.8 SEASON PPR
BUF
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Minnesota VikingsPASSING
Kirk Cousins4547 yd · 29 TD · 14 INT
RUSHING
Dalvin Cook1173 yd · 8 TD
Alexander Mattison283 yd · 5 TD
Kirk Cousins97 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
Justin Jefferson128 rec · 1809 yd · 8 TD
Adam Thielen70 rec · 716 yd · 6 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
COMMON QUESTIONSMIN vs BUF
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 59% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project BUF by 3.1. The market has BUF at -6.5.
The model projects 47.5 combined points. The market total is 47.0.
Week 10 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Buffalo Bills: MIN -0.023 against BUF +0.168.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the EdgeWEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
