Vikings vs Bills – Week 10 2022
MIN
BUF
MIN
AWAY
33@30
MIN BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 10
2022 SEASON
Highmark Stadium · Orchard Park, NY
BUF
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Minnesota Vikings 33, Buffalo Bills 30.
Going in, our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 59% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Vikings, 3 Bills.
Model confidence: BUF 59%Our line: BUF -3.1
ODDS
SPREAD
BUF -6.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BUF -3.1
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BUF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
59%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 10
-0.023Net EPA / play+0.168
-0.011 (19)Offense EPA / play+0.116 (2)
+0.012 (21)Defense EPA / play-0.052 (7)
44.9% (13)Offense success %49.0% (2)
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF C-tier pick misses. MIN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked BUF but MIN won. Projected margin was 3.1, the model overestimated by 6.1 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 9.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIN
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
BUF
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
38°F
WIND
11 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
BUF
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSMIN vs BUF
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 59% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project BUF by 3.1. The market has BUF at -6.5.
Minnesota Vikings won, MIN 33, BUF 30. Our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 59% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Buffalo Bills at -6.5, meaning the book expects Buffalo Bills to win by 6.5 points.
In Week 10, the Minnesota Vikings were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Buffalo Bills were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 47.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.5, 0.5 above the market.
Week 10 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Buffalo Bills: MIN -0.023 against BUF +0.168.
