2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
IND @ LV – Week 10 2022
IND
LV
IND
AWAY
25@20
IND +5
FINAL · WEEK 10
2022 SEASON
LV
HOME
TIER C
PICK: LV
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: LV 57%Projected margin: 0.8
LV
PICK SIDE
-4.5
SPREAD
0.8
PROJ MARGIN
-191
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
LV C-tier pick misses. IND takes it.
MISSED
Model picked LV but IND won. Projected margin was 0.8 -- the model overestimated by 5.8 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 9.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -4.5 | LV market line | |
| MODEL ML | -191 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -199 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
IND
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
LV
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
IND
Michael Pittman
WR
216.5SEASON PPR
Matt Ryan
QB
155.3SEASON PPR
Parris Campbell
WR
149.1SEASON PPR
LV
Davante Adams
WR
335.5SEASON PPR
Josh Jacobs
RB
328.3SEASON PPR
Derek Carr
QB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 4 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LV@INDW5 2025 | LV 6, IND 40 | IND | W |
| LV@INDW17 2023 | LV 20, IND 23 | IND | W |
| LV@INDW17 2021 | LV 23, IND 20 | IND | L |
| IND@LVW14 2020 | IND 44, LV 27 | IND | W |
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES