Colts vs Raiders – Week 10 2022
IND
LV
IND
AWAY
25@20
IND BY 5
FINAL · WEEK 10
2022 SEASON
Allegiant Stadium · Las Vegas, NV
LV
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Indianapolis Colts 25, Las Vegas Raiders 20.
Going in, our model had favored Las Vegas Raiders at 57% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 3 Colts.
Model confidence: LV 57%Our line: LV -2.4
ODDS
SPREAD
LV -4.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LV -2.4
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
LV · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
57%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 10
-0.141Net EPA / play-0.064
-0.168 (31)Offense EPA / play+0.000 (17)
-0.027 (11)Defense EPA / play+0.064 (29)
39.8% (29)Offense success %43.1% (21)
GAME NARRATIVE
LV C-tier pick misses. IND takes it.
MISSED
Model picked LV but IND won. Projected margin was 2.4, the model overestimated by 7.4 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 9.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
IND
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
LV
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
LV
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Indianapolis ColtsPASSING
Matt Ryan3057 yd · 14 TD · 13 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 4 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LV@INDW5 2025 | LV 6, IND 40 | IND | W |
| LV@INDW17 2023 | LV 20, IND 23 | IND | W |
| LV@INDW17 2021 | LV 23, IND 20 | IND | L |
| IND@LVW14 2020 | IND 44, LV 27 | IND | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSIND vs LV
Our model takes Las Vegas Raiders at 57% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project LV by 2.4. The market has LV at -4.5.
Indianapolis Colts won, IND 25, LV 20. Our model had favored Las Vegas Raiders at 57% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Las Vegas Raiders at -4.5, meaning the book expects Las Vegas Raiders to win by 4.5 points.
In Week 10, the Indianapolis Colts were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 41.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.5, 4.5 above the market.
Week 10 of the 2022 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Indianapolis Colts, LV 6, IND 40 in Week 5 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Las Vegas Raiders: IND -0.141 against LV -0.064.
