Colts vs Raiders – Week 14 2020
IND
LV
IND
AWAY
44@27
IND BY 17
FINAL · WEEK 14
2020 SEASON
Allegiant Stadium · Las Vegas, NV
LV
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Indianapolis Colts 44, Las Vegas Raiders 27.
Going in, our model had favored Indianapolis Colts at 53% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Colts, 2 Raiders.
Model confidence: IND 53%Our line: IND -1.2
ODDS
SPREAD
IND -2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
IND -1.2
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
IND · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
53%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 14
+0.109Net EPA / play-0.085
+0.079 (12)Offense EPA / play+0.045 (13)
-0.030 (9)Defense EPA / play+0.130 (29)
46.6% (10)Offense success %46.5% (11)
GAME NARRATIVE
IND C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked IND. Projected margin: 1.2. Actual: 17. Off by 15.8 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 14.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
IND
Road Favorite 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
LV
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
LV
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Indianapolis ColtsPASSING
Philip Rivers4169 yd · 24 TD · 11 INT
RECEIVING
T.Y. Hilton56 rec · 762 yd · 5 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 14
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 4 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LV@INDW5 2025 | LV 6, IND 40 | IND | W |
| LV@INDW17 2023 | LV 20, IND 23 | IND | W |
| IND@LVW10 2022 | IND 25, LV 20 | LV | L |
| LV@INDW17 2021 | LV 23, IND 20 | IND | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 14 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSIND vs LV
Our model takes Indianapolis Colts at 53% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project IND by 1.2. The market has IND at -2.5.
Indianapolis Colts won, IND 44, LV 27. Our model had favored Indianapolis Colts at 53% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Indianapolis Colts at -2.5, meaning the book expects Indianapolis Colts to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 14, the Indianapolis Colts were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Las Vegas Raiders were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 51.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.8, 3.7 below the market.
Week 14 of the 2020 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Indianapolis Colts, LV 6, IND 40 in Week 5 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Indianapolis Colts: IND +0.109 against LV -0.085.
