2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
IND @ LV – Week 14 2020
IND
LV
IND
AWAY
44@27
IND +17
FINAL · WEEK 14
2020 SEASON
LV
HOME
TIER C
PICK: IND
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: IND 53%Projected margin: -2.1
IND
PICK SIDE
-2.5
SPREAD
-2.1
PROJ MARGIN
-143
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
IND C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked IND. Projected margin: 2.1. Actual: 17. Off by 14.9 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 14.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -2.5 | IND market line | |
| MODEL ML | -143 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -130 | Won · +$0.70 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
IND
Road Favorite 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
LV
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
IND
Jonathan Taylor
RB
252.8SEASON PPR
Philip Rivers
QB
240.0SEASON PPR
Nyheim Hines
RB
193.2SEASON PPR
LV
Darren Waller
TE
278.6SEASON PPR
Derek Carr
QB
272.1SEASON PPR
Josh Jacobs
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 14
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 4 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LV@INDW5 2025 | LV 6, IND 40 | IND | W |
| LV@INDW17 2023 | LV 20, IND 23 | IND | W |
| IND@LVW10 2022 | IND 25, LV 20 | LV | L |
| LV@INDW17 2021 | LV 23, IND 20 | IND | L |
WEEK 14 · OTHER GAMES