MIN @ TB – Week 14 2020
MIN
TB
MIN
AWAY
14@26
TB BY 12
FINAL · WEEK 14
2020 SEASON
Raymond James Stadium · Tampa, FL
TB
HOME
Model confidence: MIN 52%Our line: MIN -0.7
MIN
PICK SIDE
+7.0
MARKET SPREAD
-0.7
OUR LINE
-109
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 14
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2020 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.003Net EPA / play+0.170
+0.095Offense EPA / play+0.119
+0.098Defense EPA / play-0.051
49.2%Offense success %45.9%
50.0%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
MIN C-tier pick misses. TB takes it.
MISSED
Model picked MIN but TB won. Projected margin was 0.7, the model overestimated by 12.7 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 5.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | MIN | TB |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +271 | -317 |
| Our fair price | -109 | +109 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD MIN +7.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
52%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
26%
DIFFERENCE
+26%
Both figures are for MIN. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
78°F
WIND
5 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
MIN
Dalvin Cook
RB
337.8 SEASON PPR
Kirk Cousins
QB
306.2 SEASON PPR
Justin Jefferson
WR
274.2 SEASON PPR
TB
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Minnesota VikingsPASSING
Kirk Cousins4265 yd · 35 TD · 13 INT
RUSHING
Dalvin Cook1557 yd · 16 TD
Alexander Mattison434 yd · 2 TD
Kirk Cousins156 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Justin Jefferson88 rec · 1400 yd · 7 TD
Adam Thielen74 rec · 925 yd · 14 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 14
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TB@MINW1 2023 | TB 20, MIN 17 | MIN | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSMIN vs TB
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Minnesota Vikings at 52% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project MIN by 0.7. The market has MIN at +7.0.
The model projects 46.9 combined points. The market total is 52.5.
Week 14 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, TB 20, MIN 17 in Week 1 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: MIN -0.003 against TB +0.170.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 14 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
