Vikings vs Buccaneers – Week 14 2020
MIN
TB
MIN
AWAY
14@26
TB BY 12
FINAL · WEEK 14
2020 SEASON
Raymond James Stadium · Tampa, FL
TB
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Minnesota Vikings 14, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 26.
Going in, our model had favored Minnesota Vikings at 52% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 3 Vikings, 1 Buccaneers.
Model confidence: MIN 52%Our line: MIN -0.7
ODDS
SPREAD
MIN +7.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
MIN -0.7
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
MIN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
52%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 14
-0.003Net EPA / play+0.170
+0.095 (8)Offense EPA / play+0.119 (6)
+0.098 (27)Defense EPA / play-0.051 (6)
49.2% (5)Offense success %45.9% (15)
GAME NARRATIVE
MIN C-tier pick misses. TB takes it.
MISSED
Model picked MIN but TB won. Projected margin was 0.7, the model overestimated by 12.7 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 5.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
78°F
WIND
5 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
TB
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 14
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIN@TBW3 2026 | MIN 23, TB 16 | MIN | W |
| TB@MINW1 2023 | TB 20, MIN 17 | MIN | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 14 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSMIN vs TB
Our model takes Minnesota Vikings at 52% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project MIN by 0.7. The market has MIN at +7.0.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers won, MIN 14, TB 26. Our model had favored Minnesota Vikings at 52% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Minnesota Vikings at +7.0, meaning the book expects Minnesota Vikings to win by 7.0 points.
In Week 14, the Minnesota Vikings were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 52.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.9, 5.6 below the market.
Week 14 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Minnesota Vikings, MIN 23, TB 16 in Week 3 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: MIN -0.003 against TB +0.170.
