Buccaneers vs Vikings – Week 1 2023
TB
MIN
TB
AWAY
20@17
TB BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 1
2023 SEASON
U.S. Bank Stadium · Minneapolis, MN
MIN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20, Minnesota Vikings 17.
Going in, our model had favored Minnesota Vikings at 60% win probability, and the pick lost.
Model confidence: MIN 60%Our line: MIN -3.5
ODDS
SPREAD
MIN -4.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
MIN -3.5
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
MIN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
60%
MIN · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
65%
DIFFERENCE
-5%
| SOURCE | TB | MIN | MIN WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +170 | -205 | 65.1% |
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
+0.007Net EPA / play-0.023
-0.017 (14)Offense EPA / play-0.041 (17)
-0.024 (18)Defense EPA / play-0.018 (20)
39.6% (27)Offense success %42.4% (13)
GAME NARRATIVE
MIN C-tier pick misses. TB takes it.
MISSED
Model picked MIN but TB won. Projected margin was 3.5, the model overestimated by 6.5 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 9 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 7.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
TB
No noteworthy trends
MIN
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
MIN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIN@TBW3 2026 | MIN 23, TB 16 | MIN | W |
| MIN@TBW14 2020 | MIN 14, TB 26 | MIN | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSTB vs MIN
Our model takes Minnesota Vikings at 60% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project MIN by 3.5. The market has MIN at -4.0.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers won, TB 20, MIN 17. Our model had favored Minnesota Vikings at 60% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Minnesota Vikings at -4.0, meaning the book expects Minnesota Vikings to win by 4.0 points.
Week 1 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Minnesota Vikings, MIN 23, TB 16 in Week 3 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: TB +0.007 against MIN -0.023.
