TB @ MIN – Week 1 2023
TB
MIN
TB
AWAY
20@17
TB BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 1
2023 SEASON
U.S. Bank Stadium · Minneapolis, MN
MIN
HOME
Model confidence: MIN 60%Our line: MIN -3.5
MIN
PICK SIDE
-4.0
MARKET SPREAD
-3.5
OUR LINE
-152
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2023 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.007Net EPA / play-0.023
-0.017Offense EPA / play-0.041
-0.024Defense EPA / play-0.018
39.6%Offense success %42.4%
43.4%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
MIN C-tier pick misses. TB takes it.
MISSED
Model picked MIN but TB won. Projected margin was 3.5, the model overestimated by 6.5 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 9 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 7.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | TB | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +170 | -205 |
| Our fair price | +152 | -152 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD MIN -4.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
60%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
64%
DIFFERENCE
-4%
Both figures are for MIN. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
TB
No noteworthy trends
MIN
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
TB
Mike Evans
WR
282.5 SEASON PPR
Baker Mayfield
QB
274.1 SEASON PPR
Rachaad White
RB
267.9 SEASON PPR
MIN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Tampa Bay BuccaneersPASSING
Baker Mayfield4044 yd · 28 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
Rachaad White990 yd · 6 TD
Chase Edmonds176 yd · 0 TD
Baker Mayfield163 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Mike Evans79 rec · 1255 yd · 13 TD
Chris Godwin Jr.83 rec · 1024 yd · 2 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIN@TBW14 2020 | MIN 14, TB 26 | MIN | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSTB vs MIN
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Minnesota Vikings at 60% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project MIN by 3.5. The market has MIN at -4.0.
Week 1 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, MIN 14, TB 26 in Week 14 of 2020.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: TB +0.007 against MIN -0.023.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the EdgeWEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
