Raiders vs Broncos – Week 1 2023
LV
DEN
LV
AWAY
17@16
LV BY 1
FINAL · WEEK 1
2023 SEASON
Empower Field at Mile High · Denver, CO
DEN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Las Vegas Raiders 17, Denver Broncos 16.
Going in, our model had favored Las Vegas Raiders at 61% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Raiders.
Model confidence: LV 61%Our line: LV -3.8
ODDS
SPREAD
LV +3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LV -3.8
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
LV · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
61%
LV · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
40%
DIFFERENCE
+21%
| SOURCE | LV | DEN | LV WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +136 | -162 | 40.3% |
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
-0.037Net EPA / play-0.077
-0.097 (25)Offense EPA / play-0.058 (20)
-0.060 (9)Defense EPA / play+0.019 (26)
41.2% (19)Offense success %42.1% (14)
GAME NARRATIVE
LV B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected LV by 3.8. Actual: 1 points. The model was within 2.8 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 9 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 4.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LV
Divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)
DEN
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Las Vegas RaidersPASSING
Aidan O'Connell2218 yd · 12 TD · 7 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN@LVW14 2025 | DEN 24, LV 17 | DEN | W |
| LV@DENW10 2025 | LV 7, DEN 10 | DEN | W |
| DEN@LVW12 2024 | DEN 29, LV 19 | DEN | W |
| LV@DENW5 2024 | LV 18, DEN 34 | DEN | W |
| DEN@LVW18 2023 | DEN 14, LV 27 | LV | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLV vs DEN
Our model takes Las Vegas Raiders at 61% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project LV by 3.8. The market has LV at +3.0.
Las Vegas Raiders won, LV 17, DEN 16. Our model had favored Las Vegas Raiders at 61% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Las Vegas Raiders at +3.0, meaning the book expects Las Vegas Raiders to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 1, the Las Vegas Raiders were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Week 1 of the 2023 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Denver Broncos, DEN 24, LV 17 in Week 14 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Las Vegas Raiders: LV -0.037 against DEN -0.077.
