LV @ DEN – Week 1 2023
LV
DEN
LV
AWAY
17@16
LV BY 1
FINAL · WEEK 1
2023 SEASON
Empower Field at Mile High · Denver, CO
DEN
HOME
Model confidence: LV 61%Our line: LV -3.8
LV
PICK SIDE
+3.0
MARKET SPREAD
-3.8
OUR LINE
-156
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2023 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.037Net EPA / play-0.077
-0.097Offense EPA / play-0.058
-0.060Defense EPA / play+0.019
41.2%Offense success %42.1%
43.4%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
LV B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected LV by 3.8. Actual: 1 points. The model was within 2.8 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 9 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 4.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | LV | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +136 | -162 |
| Our fair price | -156 | +156 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD LV +3.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$1.54
OUR NUMBER
61%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
41%
DIFFERENCE
+20%
Both figures are for LV. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LV
Divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)
DEN
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
LV
Davante Adams
WR
265.4 SEASON PPR
Jakobi Meyers
WR
218.6 SEASON PPR
Josh Jacobs
RB
181.1 SEASON PPR
DEN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Las Vegas RaidersPASSING
Aidan O'Connell2218 yd · 12 TD · 7 INT
RUSHING
Josh Jacobs805 yd · 6 TD
Zamir White451 yd · 1 TD
Ameer Abdullah89 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
Davante Adams103 rec · 1144 yd · 8 TD
Jakobi Meyers71 rec · 807 yd · 8 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN@LVW14 2025 | DEN 24, LV 17 | DEN | W |
| LV@DENW10 2025 | LV 7, DEN 10 | DEN | W |
| DEN@LVW12 2024 | DEN 29, LV 19 | DEN | W |
| LV@DENW5 2024 | LV 18, DEN 34 | DEN | W |
| DEN@LVW18 2023 | DEN 14, LV 27 | LV | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSLV vs DEN
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Las Vegas Raiders at 61% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project LV by 3.8. The market has LV at +3.0.
Week 1 of the 2023 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Denver Broncos, DEN 24, LV 17 in Week 14 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Las Vegas Raiders: LV -0.037 against DEN -0.077.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
