PHI @ NE – Week 1 2023
PHI
NE
PHI
AWAY
25@20
PHI BY 5
FINAL · WEEK 1
2023 SEASON
Gillette Stadium · Foxborough, MA
NE
HOME
Model confidence: PHI 65%Our line: PHI -5.3
PHI
PICK SIDE
-3.5
MARKET SPREAD
-5.3
OUR LINE
-189
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2023 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.005Net EPA / play-0.136
+0.054Offense EPA / play-0.191
+0.049Defense EPA / play-0.055
45.9%Offense success %38.9%
44.5%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
PHI B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected PHI by 5.3. Actual: 5 points. The model was within 0.3 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 1.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | PHI | NE |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -185 | +154 |
| Our fair price | -189 | +189 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD PHI -3.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.61
OUR NUMBER
65%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
62%
DIFFERENCE
+3%
Both figures are for PHI. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
PHI
Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)
NE
Home Underdog 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
PHI
Jalen Hurts
QB
356.8 SEASON PPR
A.J. Brown
WR
289.6 SEASON PPR
DeVonta Smith
WR
227.6 SEASON PPR
NE
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Philadelphia EaglesPASSING
Jalen Hurts3858 yd · 23 TD · 15 INT
RUSHING
D'Andre Swift1049 yd · 5 TD
Jalen Hurts605 yd · 15 TD
Kenneth Gainwell364 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
A.J. Brown106 rec · 1456 yd · 7 TD
DeVonta Smith81 rec · 1066 yd · 7 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
COMMON QUESTIONSPHI vs NE
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Philadelphia Eagles at 65% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project PHI by 5.3. The market has PHI at -3.5.
Week 1 of the 2023 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Philadelphia Eagles: PHI +0.005 against NE -0.136.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the EdgeWEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
