Eagles vs Patriots – Week 1 2023
PHI
NE
PHI
AWAY
25@20
PHI BY 5
FINAL · WEEK 1
2023 SEASON
Gillette Stadium · Foxborough, MA
NE
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Philadelphia Eagles 25, New England Patriots 20.
Going in, our model had favored Philadelphia Eagles at 65% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Patriots.
Model confidence: PHI 65%Our line: PHI -5.3
ODDS
SPREAD
PHI -3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
PHI -5.3
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
PHI · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
65%
PHI · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
63%
DIFFERENCE
+2%
| SOURCE | PHI | NE | PHI WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -185 | +154 | 62.8% |
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
+0.005Net EPA / play-0.136
+0.054 (8)Offense EPA / play-0.191 (31)
+0.049 (29)Defense EPA / play-0.055 (12)
45.9% (7)Offense success %38.9% (28)
GAME NARRATIVE
PHI B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected PHI by 5.3. Actual: 5 points. The model was within 0.3 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 1.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
PHI
Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)
NE
Home Underdog 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSPHI vs NE
Our model takes Philadelphia Eagles at 65% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project PHI by 5.3. The market has PHI at -3.5.
Philadelphia Eagles won, PHI 25, NE 20. Our model had favored Philadelphia Eagles at 65% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Philadelphia Eagles at -3.5, meaning the book expects Philadelphia Eagles to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 1, the New England Patriots were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Week 1 of the 2023 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Philadelphia Eagles: PHI +0.005 against NE -0.136.
