2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
CIN @ CLE – Week 1 2023
CIN
CLE
CIN
AWAY
3@24
CLE +21
FINAL · WEEK 1
2023 SEASON
CLE
HOME
TIER B
PICK: CIN
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: CIN 70%Projected margin: -4.3
CIN
PICK SIDE
-1.0
SPREAD
-4.3
PROJ MARGIN
-115
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
CIN B-tier pick misses. CLE takes it.
MISSED
Model picked CIN but CLE won. Projected margin was 4.3 -- the model overestimated by 25.3 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 22.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -1.0 | CIN market line | |
| MODEL ML | -115 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -112 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
CIN
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
CLE
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
CIN
Joe Mixon
RB
267.0SEASON PPR
Ja'Marr Chase
WR
262.7SEASON PPR
Joe Burrow
QB
147.2SEASON PPR
CLE
Amari Cooper
WR
227.0SEASON PPR
Jerome Ford
RB
211.2SEASON PPR
David Njoku
TE
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLE@CINW18 2025 | CLE 20, CIN 18 | CIN | L |
| CIN@CLEW1 2025 | CIN 17, CLE 16 | CIN | W |
| CLE@CINW16 2024 | CLE 6, CIN 24 | CIN | W |
| CIN@CLEW7 2024 | CIN 21, CLE 14 | CIN | W |
| CLE@CINW18 2023 | CLE 14, CIN 31 | CLE | L |
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES