CIN @ CLE – Week 1 2023
CIN
CLE
CIN
AWAY
3@24
CLE BY 21
FINAL · WEEK 1
2023 SEASON
Huntington Bank Field · Cleveland, OH
CLE
HOME
Model confidence: CIN 70%Our line: CIN -7.1
CIN
PICK SIDE
-1.0
MARKET SPREAD
-7.1
OUR LINE
-233
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2023 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.044Net EPA / play+0.045
-0.010Offense EPA / play-0.141
+0.034Defense EPA / play-0.186
44.0%Offense success %38.9%
46.0%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
CIN B-tier pick misses. CLE takes it.
MISSED
Model picked CIN but CLE won. Projected margin was 7.1, the model overestimated by 28.1 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 22.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | CIN | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -112 | -108 |
| Our fair price | -233 | +233 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD CIN -1.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
70%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
50%
DIFFERENCE
+20%
Both figures are for CIN. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CIN
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
CLE
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
CIN
Joe Mixon
RB
267.0 SEASON PPR
Ja'Marr Chase
WR
262.7 SEASON PPR
Joe Burrow
QB
147.2 SEASON PPR
CLE
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Cincinnati BengalsPASSING
Joe Burrow2309 yd · 15 TD · 6 INT
RUSHING
Joe Mixon1034 yd · 9 TD
Chase Brown179 yd · 0 TD
Jake Browning127 yd · 3 TD
RECEIVING
Ja'Marr Chase100 rec · 1216 yd · 7 TD
Tyler Boyd67 rec · 667 yd · 2 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLE@CINW18 2025 | CLE 20, CIN 18 | CIN | L |
| CIN@CLEW1 2025 | CIN 17, CLE 16 | CIN | W |
| CLE@CINW16 2024 | CLE 6, CIN 24 | CIN | W |
| CIN@CLEW7 2024 | CIN 21, CLE 14 | CIN | W |
| CLE@CINW18 2023 | CLE 14, CIN 31 | CLE | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSCIN vs CLE
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Cincinnati Bengals at 70% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project CIN by 7.1. The market has CIN at -1.0.
Week 1 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Cleveland Browns, CLE 20, CIN 18 in Week 18 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Cleveland Browns: CIN -0.044 against CLE +0.045.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the EdgeWEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
