Bengals vs Browns – Week 1 2023
CIN
CLE
CIN
AWAY
3@24
CLE BY 21
FINAL · WEEK 1
2023 SEASON
Huntington Bank Field · Cleveland, OH
CLE
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Cincinnati Bengals 3, Cleveland Browns 24.
Going in, our model had favored Cincinnati Bengals at 70% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Bengals.
Model confidence: CIN 70%Our line: CIN -7.1
ODDS
SPREAD
CIN -1.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
CIN -7.1
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
CIN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
70%
CIN · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
50%
DIFFERENCE
+20%
| SOURCE | CIN | CLE | CIN WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -112 | -108 | 50.5% |
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
-0.044Net EPA / play+0.045
-0.010 (12)Offense EPA / play-0.141 (28)
+0.034 (28)Defense EPA / play-0.186 (1)
44.0% (10)Offense success %38.9% (29)
GAME NARRATIVE
CIN B-tier pick misses. CLE takes it.
MISSED
Model picked CIN but CLE won. Projected margin was 7.1, the model overestimated by 28.1 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 22.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CIN
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
CLE
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
CLE
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLE@CINW18 2025 | CLE 20, CIN 18 | CIN | L |
| CIN@CLEW1 2025 | CIN 17, CLE 16 | CIN | W |
| CLE@CINW16 2024 | CLE 6, CIN 24 | CIN | W |
| CIN@CLEW7 2024 | CIN 21, CLE 14 | CIN | W |
| CLE@CINW18 2023 | CLE 14, CIN 31 | CLE | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCIN vs CLE
Our model takes Cincinnati Bengals at 70% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project CIN by 7.1. The market has CIN at -1.0.
Cleveland Browns won, CIN 3, CLE 24. Our model had favored Cincinnati Bengals at 70% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Cincinnati Bengals at -1.0, meaning the book expects Cincinnati Bengals to win by 1.0 points.
In Week 1, the Cincinnati Bengals were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Week 1 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Cleveland Browns, CLE 20, CIN 18 in Week 18 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Cleveland Browns: CIN -0.044 against CLE +0.045.
