Browns vs Bengals – Week 16 2024
CLE
CIN
CLE
AWAY
6@24
CIN BY 18
FINAL · WEEK 16
2024 SEASON
Paycor Stadium · Cincinnati, OH
CIN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Cleveland Browns 6, Cincinnati Bengals 24.
Going in, our model had favored Cincinnati Bengals at 71% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Browns, 3 Bengals.
Model confidence: CIN 71%Our line: CIN -7.6
ODDS
SPREAD
CIN -10.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
CIN -7.6
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
CIN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
71%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 16
-0.201Net EPA / play+0.053
-0.183 (32)Offense EPA / play+0.090 (7)
+0.017 (18)Defense EPA / play+0.037 (22)
37.0% (32)Offense success %47.2% (9)
GAME NARRATIVE
CIN A-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked CIN. Projected margin: 7.6. Actual: 18. Off by 10.4 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 8.0 points.
COLD GAME
33°F at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. A-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CLE
divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)home_underdog 2-4 ATS (33%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Home Underdog 2-4 ATS (33%)
CIN
road_favorite 5-1 ATS (83%)Road Favorite 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
33°F
WIND
6 MPH
COLD GAME
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
CIN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLE@CINW18 2025 | CLE 20, CIN 18 | CIN | L |
| CIN@CLEW1 2025 | CIN 17, CLE 16 | CIN | W |
| CIN@CLEW7 2024 | CIN 21, CLE 14 | CIN | W |
| CLE@CINW18 2023 | CLE 14, CIN 31 | CLE | L |
| CIN@CLEW1 2023 | CIN 3, CLE 24 | CIN | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCLE vs CIN
Our model takes Cincinnati Bengals at 71% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project CIN by 7.6. The market has CIN at -10.0.
Cincinnati Bengals won, CLE 6, CIN 24. Our model had favored Cincinnati Bengals at 71% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Cincinnati Bengals at -10.0, meaning the book expects Cincinnati Bengals to win by 10.0 points.
In Week 16, the Cleveland Browns were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Cincinnati Bengals were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 46.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.3, 0.2 below the market.
Week 16 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Cleveland Browns, CLE 20, CIN 18 in Week 18 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Cincinnati Bengals: CLE -0.201 against CIN +0.053.
