2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
TEN @ IND – Week 16 2024
TEN
IND
TEN
AWAY
30@38
IND +8
FINAL · WEEK 16
2024 SEASON
IND
HOME
TIER A
PICK: IND
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: IND 72%Projected margin: 6.5
IND
PICK SIDE
-4.0
SPREAD
6.5
PROJ MARGIN
-178
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
IND A-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected IND by 6.5. Actual: 8 points. The model was within 1.5 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 4.0 points.
Another data point for the model. A-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -4.0 | IND market line | |
| MODEL ML | -178 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -198 | Won · +$0.56 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
TEN
divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
IND
divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
TEN
T.Pollard
RB
200.7SEASON PPR
C.Ridley
WR
199.2SEASON PPR
N.Westbrook-Ikhine
WR
135.7SEASON PPR
IND
J.Taylor
RB
246.7SEASON PPR
J.Downs
WR
182.2SEASON PPR
M.Pittman
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEN@INDW8 2025 | TEN 14, IND 38 | IND | W |
| IND@TENW3 2025 | IND 41, TEN 20 | IND | W |
| IND@TENW6 2024 | IND 20, TEN 17 | IND | W |
| IND@TENW13 2023 | IND 31, TEN 28 | IND | W |
| TEN@INDW5 2023 | TEN 16, IND 23 | IND | W |
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES