Titans vs Colts – Week 16 2024
TEN
IND
TEN
AWAY
30@38
IND BY 8
FINAL · WEEK 16
2024 SEASON
Lucas Oil Stadium · Indianapolis, IN
IND
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Tennessee Titans 30, Indianapolis Colts 38.
Going in, our model had favored Indianapolis Colts at 72% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Titans, 2 Colts.
Model confidence: IND 72%Our line: IND -7.7
ODDS
SPREAD
IND -4.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
IND -7.7
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
IND · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
72%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 16
-0.146Net EPA / play-0.061
-0.116 (30)Offense EPA / play-0.057 (24)
+0.030 (21)Defense EPA / play+0.004 (13)
39.9% (29)Offense success %40.2% (28)
GAME NARRATIVE
IND A-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected IND by 7.7. Actual: 8 points. The model was within 0.3 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 4.0 points.
Another data point for the model. A-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
TEN
divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
IND
divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
IND
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEN@INDW6 2026 | TEN 26, IND 20 | IND | L |
| TEN@INDW8 2025 | TEN 14, IND 38 | IND | W |
| IND@TENW3 2025 | IND 41, TEN 20 | IND | W |
| IND@TENW6 2024 | IND 20, TEN 17 | IND | W |
| IND@TENW13 2023 | IND 31, TEN 28 | IND | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSTEN vs IND
Our model takes Indianapolis Colts at 72% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project IND by 7.7. The market has IND at -4.0.
Indianapolis Colts won, TEN 30, IND 38. Our model had favored Indianapolis Colts at 72% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Indianapolis Colts at -4.0, meaning the book expects Indianapolis Colts to win by 4.0 points.
In Week 16, the Tennessee Titans were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Indianapolis Colts were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 42.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.3, 2.8 above the market.
Week 16 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Tennessee Titans, TEN 26, IND 20 in Week 6 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Indianapolis Colts: TEN -0.146 against IND -0.061.
