2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
IND @ TEN – Week 3 2025
IND
TEN
IND
AWAY
41@20
IND +21
FINAL · WEEK 3
2025 SEASON
TEN
HOME
TIER A+
PICK: IND
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: IND 79%Projected margin: -9.0
IND
PICK SIDE
-6.0
SPREAD
-9.0
PROJ MARGIN
-237
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
IND A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked IND. Projected margin: 9.0. Actual: 21. Off by 12.0 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 15.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -6.0 | IND market line | |
| MODEL ML | -237 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | — | Won · +$0.42 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
IND
No noteworthy trends
TEN
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
84°F
WIND
8 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
IND
J.Taylor
RB
362.3SEASON PPR
D.Jones
QB
226.4SEASON PPR
M.Pittman
WR
202.4SEASON PPR
TEN
C.Ward
QB
186.7SEASON PPR
T.Pollard
RB
185.8SEASON PPR
C.Dike
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEN@INDW8 2025 | TEN 14, IND 38 | IND | W |
| TEN@INDW16 2024 | TEN 30, IND 38 | IND | W |
| IND@TENW6 2024 | IND 20, TEN 17 | IND | W |
| IND@TENW13 2023 | IND 31, TEN 28 | IND | W |
| TEN@INDW5 2023 | TEN 16, IND 23 | IND | W |
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES