2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
MIA @ BUF – Week 3 2025
MIA
BUF
MIA
AWAY
21@31
BUF +10
FINAL · WEEK 3
2025 SEASON
BUF
HOME
TIER S
PICK: BUF
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: BUF 81%Projected margin: 10.7
BUF
PICK SIDE
-12.5
SPREAD
10.7
PROJ MARGIN
-604
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected BUF by 10.7. Actual: 10 points. The model was within 0.7 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 2.5 points.
Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -12.5 | BUF market line | |
| MODEL ML | -604 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | — | Won · +$0.17 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
MIA
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
BUF
Cold Weather 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
68°F
WIND
7 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
MIA
D.Achane
RB
322.8SEASON PPR
J.Waddle
WR
194.1SEASON PPR
T.Tagovailoa
QB
160.7SEASON PPR
BUF
J.Allen
QB
364.6SEASON PPR
J.Cook
RB
302.2SEASON PPR
K.Shakir
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF@MIAW10 2025 | BUF 13, MIA 30 | BUF | L |
| MIA@BUFW9 2024 | MIA 27, BUF 30 | BUF | W |
| BUF@MIAW2 2024 | BUF 31, MIA 10 | BUF | W |
| BUF@MIAW18 2023 | BUF 21, MIA 14 | BUF | W |
| MIA@BUFW4 2023 | MIA 20, BUF 48 | BUF | W |
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES