Dolphins vs Bills – Week 3 2025
MIA
BUF
MIA
AWAY
21@31
BUF BY 10
FINAL · WEEK 3
2025 SEASON
Highmark Stadium · Orchard Park, NY
BUF
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Miami Dolphins 21, Buffalo Bills 31.
Going in, our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 81% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Dolphins, 2 Bills.
Model confidence: BUF 81%Our line: BUF -11.7
ODDS
SPREAD
BUF -12.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BUF -11.7
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BUF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 3
-0.105Net EPA / play+0.152
-0.017 (22)Offense EPA / play+0.136 (3)
+0.088 (26)Defense EPA / play-0.016 (13)
41.9% (27)Offense success %48.5% (2)
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected BUF by 11.7. Actual: 10 points. The model was within 1.7 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 2.5 points.
Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIA
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
BUF
Cold Weather 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
68°F
WIND
7 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF@MIAW10 2025 | BUF 13, MIA 30 | BUF | L |
| MIA@BUFW9 2024 | MIA 27, BUF 30 | BUF | W |
| BUF@MIAW2 2024 | BUF 31, MIA 10 | BUF | W |
| BUF@MIAW18 2023 | BUF 21, MIA 14 | BUF | W |
| MIA@BUFW4 2023 | MIA 20, BUF 48 | BUF | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSMIA vs BUF
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 81% win probability, a Tier S pick. The margin models project BUF by 11.7. The market has BUF at -12.5.
Buffalo Bills won, MIA 21, BUF 31. Our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 81% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Buffalo Bills at -12.5, meaning the book expects Buffalo Bills to win by 12.5 points.
In Week 3, the Miami Dolphins were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Buffalo Bills were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 50.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.0, 3.5 below the market.
Week 3 of the 2025 season, THU 8:15 PM.
Miami Dolphins, BUF 13, MIA 30 in Week 10 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Buffalo Bills: MIA -0.105 against BUF +0.152.
