Bills vs Dolphins – Week 2 2024
BUF
MIA
BUF
AWAY
31@10
BUF BY 21
FINAL · WEEK 2
2024 SEASON
Hard Rock Stadium · Miami Gardens, FL
MIA
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Buffalo Bills 31, Miami Dolphins 10.
Going in, our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 63% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Bills, 2 Dolphins.
Model confidence: BUF 63%Our line: BUF -4.5
ODDS
SPREAD
BUF +2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BUF -4.5
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BUF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
63%
BUF · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
45%
DIFFERENCE
+18%
| SOURCE | BUF | MIA | BUF WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +114 | -135 | 44.6% |
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
+0.197Net EPA / play-0.017
+0.189 (2)Offense EPA / play-0.039 (21)
-0.009 (12)Defense EPA / play-0.022 (9)
47.5% (7)Offense success %44.3% (15)
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BUF. Projected margin: 4.5. Actual: 21. Off by 16.5 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 23.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
BUF
road_favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
MIA
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
86°F
WIND
3 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF@MIAW10 2025 | BUF 13, MIA 30 | BUF | L |
| MIA@BUFW3 2025 | MIA 21, BUF 31 | BUF | W |
| MIA@BUFW9 2024 | MIA 27, BUF 30 | BUF | W |
| BUF@MIAW18 2023 | BUF 21, MIA 14 | BUF | W |
| MIA@BUFW4 2023 | MIA 20, BUF 48 | BUF | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSBUF vs MIA
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 63% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project BUF by 4.5. The market has BUF at +2.5.
Buffalo Bills won, BUF 31, MIA 10. Our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 63% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Buffalo Bills at +2.5, meaning the book expects Buffalo Bills to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 2, the Buffalo Bills were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Miami Dolphins were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Week 2 of the 2024 season, THU 8:15 PM.
Miami Dolphins, BUF 13, MIA 30 in Week 10 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Buffalo Bills: BUF +0.197 against MIA -0.017.
