BUF @ MIA – Week 2 2024
BUF
MIA
BUF
AWAY
31@10
BUF BY 21
FINAL · WEEK 2
2024 SEASON
Hard Rock Stadium · Miami Gardens, FL
MIA
HOME
Model confidence: BUF 63%Our line: BUF -4.5
BUF
PICK SIDE
+2.5
MARKET SPREAD
-4.5
OUR LINE
-170
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2024 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.197Net EPA / play-0.017
+0.189Offense EPA / play-0.039
-0.009Defense EPA / play-0.022
47.5%Offense success %44.3%
44.0%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BUF. Projected margin: 4.5. Actual: 21. Off by 16.5 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 23.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | BUF | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +114 | -135 |
| Our fair price | -170 | +170 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD BUF +2.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$1.43
OUR NUMBER
63%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
45%
DIFFERENCE
+18%
Both figures are for BUF. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
BUF
road_favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
MIA
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
86°F
WIND
3 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
BUF
J.Allen
QB
372.3 SEASON PPR
J.Cook
RB
266.7 SEASON PPR
K.Shakir
WR
182.5 SEASON PPR
MIA
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Buffalo BillsPASSING
J.Allen3731 yd · 28 TD · 6 INT
RUSHING
J.Cook1009 yd · 16 TD
J.Allen531 yd · 12 TD
R.Davis442 yd · 3 TD
RECEIVING
K.Shakir76 rec · 821 yd · 4 TD
K.Coleman29 rec · 556 yd · 4 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF@MIAW10 2025 | BUF 13, MIA 30 | BUF | L |
| MIA@BUFW3 2025 | MIA 21, BUF 31 | BUF | W |
| MIA@BUFW9 2024 | MIA 27, BUF 30 | BUF | W |
| BUF@MIAW18 2023 | BUF 21, MIA 14 | BUF | W |
| MIA@BUFW4 2023 | MIA 20, BUF 48 | BUF | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSBUF vs MIA
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 63% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project BUF by 4.5. The market has BUF at +2.5.
Week 2 of the 2024 season, THU 8:15 PM.
Miami Dolphins, BUF 13, MIA 30 in Week 10 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Buffalo Bills: BUF +0.197 against MIA -0.017.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
