CHI @ HOU – Week 2 2024
CHI
HOU
CHI
AWAY
13@19
HOU BY 6
FINAL · WEEK 2
2024 SEASON
NRG Stadium · Houston, TX
HOU
HOME
Model confidence: HOU 63%Our line: HOU -4.7
HOU
PICK SIDE
-6.0
MARKET SPREAD
-4.7
OUR LINE
-174
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
PUSH
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2024 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.088Net EPA / play+0.015
-0.082Offense EPA / play-0.050
+0.006Defense EPA / play-0.065
39.9%Offense success %38.8%
44.3%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
HOU B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected HOU by 4.7. Actual: 6 points. The model was within 1.3 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
PUSH
Final margin landed exactly on the spread (-6.0). Push, no winner ATS.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | CHI | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +210 | -258 |
| Our fair price | +174 | -174 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD HOU -6.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.42
OUR NUMBER
63%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
69%
DIFFERENCE
-6%
Both figures are for HOU. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CHI
home_underdog 3-1 ATS (75%)divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)Home Underdog 3-1 ATS (75%)Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)
HOU
road_favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
CHI
C.Williams
QB
254.5 SEASON PPR
D.Moore
WR
238.1 SEASON PPR
D.Swift
RB
214.5 SEASON PPR
HOU
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Chicago BearsPASSING
C.Williams3541 yd · 20 TD · 6 INT
RUSHING
D.Swift959 yd · 6 TD
C.Williams489 yd · 0 TD
R.Johnson150 yd · 6 TD
RECEIVING
D.Moore98 rec · 966 yd · 6 TD
K.Allen70 rec · 744 yd · 7 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU@CHIW3 2022 | HOU 20, CHI 23 | CHI | W |
| HOU@CHIW14 2020 | HOU 7, CHI 36 | HOU | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSCHI vs HOU
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Houston Texans at 63% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project HOU by 4.7. The market has HOU at -6.0.
Week 2 of the 2024 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
Chicago Bears, HOU 20, CHI 23 in Week 3 of 2022.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Houston Texans: CHI -0.088 against HOU +0.015.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
