2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
CHI @ HOU – Week 2 2024
CHI
HOU
CHI
AWAY
13@19
HOU +6
FINAL · WEEK 2
2024 SEASON
HOU
HOME
TIER B
PICK: HOU
PICK WONATS PUSH
Model confidence: HOU 63%Projected margin: 3.0
HOU
PICK SIDE
-6.0
SPREAD
3.0
PROJ MARGIN
-237
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
PUSH
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
HOU B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected HOU by 3.0. Actual: 6 points. The model was within 3.0 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
PUSH
Final margin landed exactly on the spread (+6.0). Push -- no winner ATS.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -6.0 | HOU market line | |
| MODEL ML | -237 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -258 | Won · +$0.42 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
CHI
home_underdog 3-1 ATS (75%)divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)Home Underdog 3-1 ATS (75%)Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)
HOU
road_favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
CHI
C.Williams
QB
254.5SEASON PPR
D.Moore
WR
238.1SEASON PPR
D.Swift
RB
214.5SEASON PPR
HOU
J.Mixon
RB
240.5SEASON PPR
C.Stroud
QB
220.4SEASON PPR
N.Collins
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU@CHIW3 2022 | HOU 20, CHI 23 | CHI | W |
| HOU@CHIW14 2020 | HOU 7, CHI 36 | HOU | L |
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES