Bears vs Texans – Week 2 2024
CHI
HOU
CHI
AWAY
13@19
HOU BY 6
FINAL · WEEK 2
2024 SEASON
NRG Stadium · Houston, TX
HOU
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Chicago Bears 13, Houston Texans 19.
Going in, our model had favored Houston Texans at 63% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Bears, 1 Texans.
Model confidence: HOU 63%Our line: HOU -4.7
ODDS
SPREAD
HOU -6.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
HOU -4.7
OUR LINE
PUSH
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
HOU · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
63%
HOU · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
70%
DIFFERENCE
-7%
| SOURCE | CHI | HOU | HOU WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +210 | -258 | 69.9% |
WIN % is each book’s odds as a win chance, with the book’s cut taken out. The card above is their average.
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
-0.088Net EPA / play+0.015
-0.082 (26)Offense EPA / play-0.050 (22)
+0.006 (14)Defense EPA / play-0.065 (5)
39.9% (30)Offense success %38.8% (31)
GAME NARRATIVE
HOU B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected HOU by 4.7. Actual: 6 points. The model was within 1.3 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
PUSH
Final margin landed exactly on the spread (-6.0). Push, no winner ATS.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CHI
home_underdog 3-1 ATS (75%)divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)Home Underdog 3-1 ATS (75%)Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)
HOU
road_favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU@CHIW3 2022 | HOU 20, CHI 23 | CHI | W |
| HOU@CHIW14 2020 | HOU 7, CHI 36 | HOU | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCHI vs HOU
Our model takes Houston Texans at 63% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project HOU by 4.7. The market has HOU at -6.0.
Houston Texans won, CHI 13, HOU 19. Our model had favored Houston Texans at 63% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Houston Texans at -6.0, meaning the book expects Houston Texans to win by 6.0 points.
In Week 2, the Chicago Bears were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Houston Texans were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Week 2 of the 2024 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
Chicago Bears, HOU 20, CHI 23 in Week 3 of 2022.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Houston Texans: CHI -0.088 against HOU +0.015.
