PIT @ DEN – Week 2 2024
PIT
DEN
PIT
AWAY
13@6
PIT BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 2
2024 SEASON
Empower Field at Mile High · Denver, CO
DEN
HOME
Model confidence: PIT 66%Our line: PIT -5.5
PIT
PICK SIDE
-3.0
MARKET SPREAD
-5.5
OUR LINE
-193
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2024 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.016Net EPA / play+0.138
-0.034Offense EPA / play+0.020
-0.018Defense EPA / play-0.118
40.4%Offense success %42.7%
44.5%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
PIT B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected PIT by 5.5. Actual: 7 points. The model was within 1.5 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 4.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | PIT | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -155 | +130 |
| Our fair price | -193 | +193 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD PIT -3.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.65
OUR NUMBER
66%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
58%
DIFFERENCE
+8%
Both figures are for PIT. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
PIT
divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
DEN
divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
83°F
WIND
4 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
PIT
N.Harris
RB
204.6 SEASON PPR
R.Wilson
QB
172.8 SEASON PPR
P.Freiermuth
TE
168.3 SEASON PPR
DEN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Pittsburgh SteelersPASSING
R.Wilson2482 yd · 16 TD · 5 INT
RUSHING
N.Harris1043 yd · 6 TD
J.Warren511 yd · 1 TD
J.Fields289 yd · 5 TD
RECEIVING
G.Pickens59 rec · 900 yd · 3 TD
P.Freiermuth65 rec · 653 yd · 7 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN@PITW5 2021 | DEN 19, PIT 27 | DEN | L |
| DEN@PITW2 2020 | DEN 21, PIT 26 | PIT | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSPIT vs DEN
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Pittsburgh Steelers at 66% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project PIT by 5.5. The market has PIT at -3.0.
Week 2 of the 2024 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Pittsburgh Steelers, DEN 19, PIT 27 in Week 5 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Denver Broncos: PIT -0.016 against DEN +0.138.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
