Steelers vs Broncos – Week 2 2024
PIT
DEN
PIT
AWAY
13@6
PIT BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 2
2024 SEASON
Empower Field at Mile High · Denver, CO
DEN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Pittsburgh Steelers 13, Denver Broncos 6.
Going in, our model had favored Pittsburgh Steelers at 66% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Steelers, 1 Broncos.
Model confidence: PIT 66%Our line: PIT -5.5
ODDS
SPREAD
PIT -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
PIT -5.5
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
PIT · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
66%
PIT · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
59%
DIFFERENCE
+7%
| SOURCE | PIT | DEN | PIT WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -155 | +130 | 58.7% |
WIN % is each book’s odds as a win chance, with the book’s cut taken out. The card above is their average.
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
-0.016Net EPA / play+0.138
-0.034 (20)Offense EPA / play+0.020 (14)
-0.018 (10)Defense EPA / play-0.118 (1)
40.4% (27)Offense success %42.7% (17)
GAME NARRATIVE
PIT B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected PIT by 5.5. Actual: 7 points. The model was within 1.5 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 4.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
PIT
divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
DEN
divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
83°F
WIND
4 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN@PITW5 2021 | DEN 19, PIT 27 | DEN | L |
| DEN@PITW2 2020 | DEN 21, PIT 26 | PIT | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSPIT vs DEN
Our model takes Pittsburgh Steelers at 66% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project PIT by 5.5. The market has PIT at -3.0.
Pittsburgh Steelers won, PIT 13, DEN 6. Our model had favored Pittsburgh Steelers at 66% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Pittsburgh Steelers at -3.0, meaning the book expects Pittsburgh Steelers to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 2, the Pittsburgh Steelers were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Denver Broncos were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Week 2 of the 2024 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Pittsburgh Steelers, DEN 19, PIT 27 in Week 5 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Denver Broncos: PIT -0.016 against DEN +0.138.
