Browns vs Jaguars – Week 2 2024
CLE
JAX
CLE
AWAY
18@13
CLE BY 5
FINAL · WEEK 2
2024 SEASON
EverBank Stadium · Jacksonville, FL
JAX
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Cleveland Browns 18, Jacksonville Jaguars 13.
Going in, our model had favored Cleveland Browns at 50% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Browns, 1 Jaguars.
Model confidence: CLE 50%Our line: CLE +0.0
ODDS
SPREAD
CLE +3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
CLE +0.0
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
CLE · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
50%
CLE · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
39%
DIFFERENCE
+11%
| SOURCE | CLE | JAX | CLE WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +142 | -170 | 39.2% |
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
-0.201Net EPA / play-0.149
-0.183 (32)Offense EPA / play-0.020 (18)
+0.017 (18)Defense EPA / play+0.129 (31)
37.0% (32)Offense success %41.5% (21)
GAME NARRATIVE
CLE C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked CLE. Projected margin: 0.0. Actual: 5. Off by 5.0 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 8.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CLE
divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)home_underdog 2-4 ATS (33%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Home Underdog 2-4 ATS (33%)
JAX
divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)home_underdog 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Home Underdog 4-1 ATS (80%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
80°F
WIND
12 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
JAX
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLE@JAXW1 2026 | CLE 10, JAX 34 | JAX | W |
| JAX@CLEW14 2023 | JAX 27, CLE 31 | JAX | L |
| CLE@JAXW12 2020 | CLE 27, JAX 25 | CLE | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCLE vs JAX
Our model takes Cleveland Browns at 50% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project JAX by 0.0. The market has CLE at +3.0.
Cleveland Browns won, CLE 18, JAX 13. Our model had favored Cleveland Browns at 50% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Cleveland Browns at +3.0, meaning the book expects Cleveland Browns to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 2, the Cleveland Browns were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Jacksonville Jaguars were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Week 2 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Jacksonville Jaguars, CLE 10, JAX 34 in Week 1 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Jacksonville Jaguars: CLE -0.201 against JAX -0.149.
