CLE @ JAX – Week 2 2024
CLE
JAX
CLE
AWAY
18@13
CLE BY 5
FINAL · WEEK 2
2024 SEASON
EverBank Stadium · Jacksonville, FL
JAX
HOME
Model confidence: CLE 50%Our line: CLE +0.0
CLE
PICK SIDE
+3.0
MARKET SPREAD
+0.0
OUR LINE
+100
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2024 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.201Net EPA / play-0.149
-0.183Offense EPA / play-0.020
+0.017Defense EPA / play+0.129
37.0%Offense success %41.5%
41.0%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
CLE C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked CLE. Projected margin: 0.0. Actual: 5. Off by 5.0 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 8.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | CLE | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +142 | -170 |
| Our fair price | +100 | -100 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD CLE +3.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$1.54
OUR NUMBER
50%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
40%
DIFFERENCE
+10%
Both figures are for CLE. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CLE
divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)home_underdog 2-4 ATS (33%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Home Underdog 2-4 ATS (33%)
JAX
divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)home_underdog 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Home Underdog 4-1 ATS (80%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
80°F
WIND
12 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
CLE
J.Jeudy
WR
240.9 SEASON PPR
D.Njoku
TE
148.5 SEASON PPR
J.Ford
RB
134.0 SEASON PPR
JAX
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Cleveland BrownsPASSING
J.Winston2121 yd · 13 TD · 12 INT
RUSHING
J.Ford565 yd · 3 TD
N.Chubb332 yd · 3 TD
D.Foreman232 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
J.Jeudy90 rec · 1229 yd · 4 TD
E.Moore61 rec · 538 yd · 1 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| JAX@CLEW14 2023 | JAX 27, CLE 31 | JAX | L |
| CLE@JAXW12 2020 | CLE 27, JAX 25 | CLE | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSCLE vs JAX
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Cleveland Browns at 50% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project JAX by 0.0. The market has CLE at +3.0.
Week 2 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Cleveland Browns, JAX 27, CLE 31 in Week 14 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Jacksonville Jaguars: CLE -0.201 against JAX -0.149.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
