2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
CLE @ JAX – Week 2 2024
CLE
JAX
CLE
AWAY
18@13
CLE +5
FINAL · WEEK 2
2024 SEASON
JAX
HOME
TIER C
PICK: CLE
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: CLE 50%Projected margin: 0.7
CLE
PICK SIDE
+3.0
SPREAD
0.7
PROJ MARGIN
+154
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
CLE C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked CLE. Projected margin: 0.7. Actual: 5. Off by 5.7 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 8.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +3.0 | CLE market line | |
| MODEL ML | +154 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | +142 | Won · +$1.54 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
CLE
divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)home_underdog 2-4 ATS (33%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Home Underdog 2-4 ATS (33%)
JAX
divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)home_underdog 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Home Underdog 4-1 ATS (80%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
80°F
WIND
12 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
CLE
J.Jeudy
WR
240.9SEASON PPR
D.Njoku
TE
148.5SEASON PPR
J.Ford
RB
134.0SEASON PPR
JAX
B.Thomas
WR
284.0SEASON PPR
T.Lawrence
QB
145.7SEASON PPR
T.Etienne
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| JAX@CLEW14 2023 | JAX 27, CLE 31 | JAX | L |
| CLE@JAXW12 2020 | CLE 27, JAX 25 | CLE | W |
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES