IND @ GB – Week 2 2024
IND
GB
IND
AWAY
10@16
GB BY 6
FINAL · WEEK 2
2024 SEASON
Lambeau Field · Green Bay, WI
GB
HOME
Model confidence: GB 68%Our line: GB -6.3
GB
PICK SIDE
+3.0
MARKET SPREAD
-6.3
OUR LINE
-212
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2024 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.061Net EPA / play+0.146
-0.057Offense EPA / play+0.079
+0.004Defense EPA / play-0.067
40.2%Offense success %44.9%
43.2%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
GB B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected GB by 6.3. Actual: 6 points. The model was within 0.3 points of the real margin.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 9.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | IND | GB |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -142 | +120 |
| Our fair price | +212 | -212 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD GB +3.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$1.54
OUR NUMBER
68%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
44%
DIFFERENCE
+24%
Both figures are for GB. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
IND
divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
GB
road_favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)divisional 0-5 ATS (0%)Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 0-5 ATS (0%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
85°F
WIND
7 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
IND
J.Taylor
RB
246.7 SEASON PPR
J.Downs
WR
182.2 SEASON PPR
M.Pittman
WR
165.8 SEASON PPR
GB
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Indianapolis ColtsPASSING
A.Richardson1814 yd · 8 TD · 12 INT
RUSHING
J.Taylor1431 yd · 11 TD
A.Richardson499 yd · 6 TD
T.Sermon159 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
A.Pierce37 rec · 824 yd · 7 TD
M.Pittman69 rec · 808 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| GB@INDW11 2020 | GB 31, IND 34 | GB | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSIND vs GB
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Green Bay Packers at 68% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project GB by 6.3. The market has GB at +3.0.
Week 2 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Indianapolis Colts, GB 31, IND 34 in Week 11 of 2020.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Green Bay Packers: IND -0.061 against GB +0.146.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
