Colts vs Packers – Week 2 2024
IND
GB
IND
AWAY
10@16
GB BY 6
FINAL · WEEK 2
2024 SEASON
Lambeau Field · Green Bay, WI
GB
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Indianapolis Colts 10, Green Bay Packers 16.
Going in, our model had favored Green Bay Packers at 68% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Colts.
Model confidence: GB 68%Our line: GB -6.3
ODDS
SPREAD
GB +3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
GB -6.3
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
GB · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
68%
GB · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
43%
DIFFERENCE
+25%
| SOURCE | IND | GB | GB WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -142 | +120 | 43.4% |
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
-0.061Net EPA / play+0.146
-0.057 (24)Offense EPA / play+0.079 (8)
+0.004 (13)Defense EPA / play-0.067 (4)
40.2% (28)Offense success %44.9% (14)
GAME NARRATIVE
GB B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected GB by 6.3. Actual: 6 points. The model was within 0.3 points of the real margin.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 9.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
IND
divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
GB
road_favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)divisional 0-5 ATS (0%)Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 0-5 ATS (0%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
85°F
WIND
7 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| GB@INDW11 2020 | GB 31, IND 34 | GB | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSIND vs GB
Our model takes Green Bay Packers at 68% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project GB by 6.3. The market has GB at +3.0.
Green Bay Packers won, IND 10, GB 16. Our model had favored Green Bay Packers at 68% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Green Bay Packers at +3.0, meaning the book expects Green Bay Packers to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 2, the Indianapolis Colts were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Week 2 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Indianapolis Colts, GB 31, IND 34 in Week 11 of 2020.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Green Bay Packers: IND -0.061 against GB +0.146.
