Bengals vs Chiefs – Week 2 2024
CIN
KC
CIN
AWAY
25@26
KC BY 1
FINAL · WEEK 2
2024 SEASON
GEHA Field at Arrowhead · Kansas City, MO
KC
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Cincinnati Bengals 25, Kansas City Chiefs 26.
Going in, our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 69% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 4 Bengals.
Model confidence: KC 69%Our line: KC -6.7
ODDS
SPREAD
KC -6.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
KC -6.7
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
KC · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
69%
KC · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
72%
DIFFERENCE
-3%
| SOURCE | CIN | KC | KC WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +235 | -290 | 72.3% |
WIN % is each book’s odds as a win chance, with the book’s cut taken out. The card above is their average.
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
+0.053Net EPA / play+0.059
+0.090 (7)Offense EPA / play+0.070 (9)
+0.037 (22)Defense EPA / play+0.011 (16)
47.2% (9)Offense success %47.6% (6)
GAME NARRATIVE
KC B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked KC. Projected margin: 6.7. Actual: 1. Off by 5.7 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 14 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 5.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CIN
road_favorite 5-1 ATS (83%)Road Favorite 5-1 ATS (83%)
KC
divisional 0-6 ATS (0%)Divisional 0-6 ATS (0%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
89°F
WIND
8 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIN@KCW17 2023 | CIN 17, KC 25 | KC | W |
| KC@CINW13 2022 | KC 24, CIN 27 | KC | L |
| KC@CINW17 2021 | KC 31, CIN 34 | KC | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCIN vs KC
Our model takes Kansas City Chiefs at 69% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project KC by 6.7. The market has KC at -6.5.
Kansas City Chiefs won, CIN 25, KC 26. Our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 69% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Kansas City Chiefs at -6.5, meaning the book expects Kansas City Chiefs to win by 6.5 points.
In Week 2, the Cincinnati Bengals were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Week 2 of the 2024 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Kansas City Chiefs, CIN 17, KC 25 in Week 17 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Kansas City Chiefs: CIN +0.053 against KC +0.059.
