2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
CIN @ KC – Week 2 2024
CIN
KC
CIN
AWAY
25@26
KC +1
FINAL · WEEK 2
2024 SEASON
KC
HOME
TIER B
PICK: KC
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: KC 69%Projected margin: 5.7
KC
PICK SIDE
-6.5
SPREAD
5.7
PROJ MARGIN
-255
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
KC B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked KC. Projected margin: 5.7. Actual: 1. Off by 4.7 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 14 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 5.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -6.5 | KC market line | |
| MODEL ML | -255 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -290 | Won · +$0.39 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
CIN
road_favorite 5-1 ATS (83%)Road Favorite 5-1 ATS (83%)
KC
divisional 0-6 ATS (0%)Divisional 0-6 ATS (0%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
89°F
WIND
8 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
CIN
J.Chase
WR
403.0SEASON PPR
J.Burrow
QB
372.8SEASON PPR
C.Brown
RB
255.0SEASON PPR
KC
P.Mahomes
QB
283.0SEASON PPR
T.Kelce
TE
195.4SEASON PPR
X.Worthy
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIN@KCW17 2023 | CIN 17, KC 25 | KC | W |
| KC@CINW13 2022 | KC 24, CIN 27 | KC | L |
| KC@CINW17 2021 | KC 31, CIN 34 | KC | L |
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES